Global / Rates

A Global Macro Risk Dashboard

Taimur Baig, Duncan Tan / May 29, 2019
We present a set of indicators to capture global macro risks. They track economic momentum, event risk, market stress, asset valuation, and supply/demand imbalance, and flag potential pitfalls ahead.
Key summary points
  • Risk #1: Recent intensification of trade wars is threatening to undermine a nascent global recovery
  • Risk #2: Equity and credit markets reflect no rush for exit, but rates markets are sounding alarm
  • Risk#3: FX volatility is on the way up, particularly in emerging markets
  • Risk #4: USD funding conditions are orderly, but not as comfortable as they were in early-2019
  • Risk#5: Our key concern is credit markets in China and the U5, given the substantial debt burdens

A Global Macro Risk Dashboard

Photo credit: AFP Photo

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