JPY Rates: Capitulation in the ultras?
Ultra-long bear steepening.
Group Research - Econs, Eugene Leow21 Jan 2026
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The blow up in ultra-long dated JGBs triggered bear steepening across the DM space already buffeted by Greenland worries. That said, we wonder if the disorderly rise in JGB yields may mark some form of capitulation and investors may start to nibble amidst very elevated yield levels. Note that the selloff was greatest in the 40Y tenor, where yields rose by over 20bps in a single day to close above 4.1%, a record high, yesterday.

The economic drivers for higher JGB yields are well known. First, inflation appears to be entrenched above 2%. The BOJ’s slow pace of normalisation is just insufficient to bring inflation down. Moreover, persistent yen weakness is not helping. Second, we note that loan growth appears to be accelerating. This could be a budding sign that the economy may be exiting the liquidity trap. Third, it could well be that higher interest rates are providing a lift for the private sector, especially households, who have not had the chance to enjoy meaningful savings rates for an extended period. Fourth, there could be some fiscal sustainability worries as interest rates rise, and the government has to rollover debt at much higher yields. That said, the moves in the long end do look excessive and long-end yields are at very elevated levels.

Overall, we may be close to an inflection point for ultras and a further rout would probably trigger BOJ intervention. In the short-term, QE can be used to stabilize sentiment. For a more durable confidence boost, BOJ may have to hike more aggressive. Accordingly, we continue to think that belly tenor rates will face upward pressures. For the back end, domestic insurers may pivot back towards JPY assets, away from foreign securities (Lifers hold over JPY 100tn of foreign securities). Notably, ultra-long JGBs with yields >3% should prove enticing for insurers and there is no duration mismatch. There is also no need to consider the onerous FX hedging costs (given the large frontend interest rates differentials with USD) when domestic AMs hold foreign assets.

Eugene Leow

Senior Rates Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]



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