
The “Sell America” trade returned as the dominant market theme this week. The S&P 500 Index plunged 2.1% to 6797, its worst day since October 2025. Investors feared that US President Donald Trump’s push to acquire Greenland, either militarily or financially, would spark a tariff war with Europe. Trump threatened to impose an additional 10% tariff on February 1, which will rise to 25% on June 1 on goods imported from Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and the UK. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent rejected speculation that EU nations would respond to the tariff threat by dumping US bonds, following reports that Danish pension funds were exiting US Treasuries, which bolstered EUR/USD higher by 0.7% to 1.1725.
Hence, the US bond market was not spared from the sell-off in the JGB market, triggered by PM Sanae Takaichi’s call for a snap election on February 8. The US Treasury 10Y yield spiked by 7 bps to 4.293%, on top of last Friday’s 5.4 bps rise. The JGB 10Y yield surged 17 bps to 2.36% on Monday and Tuesday, more than the cumulative 15 bps increase in the first three weeks of this year. Japanese Finance Ministry Satsuki Katayama called for market calm, pushing back on the narrative that a stronger mandate for the Takaichi government would lead to unsustainable fiscal deficits and debt, following the announcement of a proposed two-year cut in the consumption tax on food.
Against this backdrop, the greenback lost its haven appeal. The DXY Index depreciated 0.8% overnight to 98.56 overnight. Markets are alert to any announcements from the US and Japan, preferably a joint statement that uses coordinated language to address excessive volatility and disorderly one-sided market moves, a signal that Washington would not oppose Tokeyo’s stabilization efforts, including interventions in the JPY. Prime Minister Takaichi needs to stabilize both the JGB and JPY markets to prevent the united opposition from framing financial volatility as evidence of fiscal irresponsibility and policy loss of control. Markets do not rule out President Trump’s tendency to TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) over Greenland, where past experiences have shown geopolitical escalation and tariff threats followed by partial walk backs. In the near term, do not expect a clean and sustainable trend but rather headline-driven volatility and a tendency towards range trading.
Quote of the Day
“Good advice is always certain to be ignored, but that's no reason not to give it.”
Agatha Christie
January 21 in history
British crime writer Agatha Christie published her first novel in 1921.



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