Indonesia markets: Domestic catalysts strengthen bearish pressure on rupiah
IDR pressure.
Group Research - Econs, Radhika Rao21 Jan 2026
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Bank Indonesia will meet on Wednesday to decide on rates and a pause is likely the path of least resistance. Base effects for inflation will be adverse in 1Q26 as local stimulus measures in the corresponding period year ago had led the quarter’s inflation to slow to 0.6% yoy. Accordingly, our forecast is for the headline to accelerate to 3.5-3.7% yoy in Jan26 (due to be released in Feb). Guidance will be cautious in midst of firm inflation, supported growth momentum and a weakening rupiah, backing a rate pause. Rupiah slipped to a fresh low against the dollar this week, feeling the heat from recent domestic developments, including fiscal slippage risks (discussed here), and return of concerns over central bank independence. The latter was reignited by the nomination of the current Deputy Finance Minister and President’s nephew to replace an outgoing BI Deputy Governor.

Markets are also monitoring MSCI’s decision on changes to its index methodology, due end-month, which might trigger some offshore index fund investors to trim their exposure. Add to this is the seasonal pressure from dividend repatriation as well as dollar demand ahead of the festive-led rise in imports. We expect the authorities to put up a strong resistance to arrest rupiah depreciation, while the policy rate slips into an extended pause. Monetary easing will be opportunistic in 2026 and deferred to the second half, subject to FX market conditions. On month-to-date basis, equity markets have witnessed net foreign inflows, while offshore to bonds/ SRBIs holdings were trimmed. IDR bond curve has steepened this month led by the long end, while a weak currency limits the room for shorter tenor yields to ease further. Once yields stabilise, authorities might explore windows for debt switching to extend duration, with notable maturities lined up over this year to 2028. FX developments have amplified the impact of the already weak global risk sentiments due to geopolitical concerns, also reflected in the underperformance of other regional currencies - Philippine peso and Indian rupee. Separately, press reports cited another capital-raising exercise by the sovereign wealth fund, Danantara in 1H26 via rupiah-denominated patriot bonds. The first tranche, concluded last year, raised around ~$3.6bn, more than the targeted scale.

Radhika Rao

Senior Economist – Eurozone, India, Indonesia
[email protected]
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