India bonds: Dovish talk helps, labour codes
RBI’s dovish talk.
Group Research - Econs, Radhika Rao26 Nov 2025
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Onshore INR bonds steadied after dovish remarks by RBI Governor Malhotra revived rate cut bets, as he highlighted that developments since the October rate review had strengthened the view that there was room to lower rates. A weak rupee has been a thorn on the policymakers’ side, as the currency slid to a new low on Friday and stayed below 89/USD this week. Authorities have defended the currency aggressively in recent weeks, but a firm dollar, portfolio equity outflows and a temporary widening in the goods trade deficit have offset part of its impact. Part of these outflows reflect foreign shareholders offload richly valued stakes at recent initial public offerings. Persistent FX intervention has also been a drain on liquidity but is expected to get a hand from the last tranche of CRR cut in early December. A combination of these developments has cemented expectations that official bond purchases via open market operations might be in the pipeline in Dec, to rein in yields. Friday’s growth report is likely to print a firmer-than-consensus 7.5% yoy (week ahead), though with annual inflation below 2% and the current quarter’s to average below 1%, we maintain our view for a 25bp cut at the Dec meeting. Commentary will be balanced, to prevent a redux of post-June hardening in bond yields, which alongside OMOs should bode well for bonds, taking 10Y yields down at least 20-30bp from prevailing levels. 

Separately, in a long-awaited move, the government consolidated 29 labour laws into four comprehensive Labour Codes. These changes are intended to formalise the labour market, besides improving compliance, simplifying the framework and safeguarding workers’ rights/ welfare. One of the notable changes is the increase in the threshold for government approvals for closures/ retrenchment to 300 workers vs 100 workers previously, which in effect incentivises companies to scale up and gain more autonomy in labour related decisions.  A uniform statutory minimum wage will also be established in the coming months, besides better protection for gig workers. Domestic reforms have been accelerated in the face of heightened global uncertainty and limited relief on the US tariff front, complementing other efforts like rationalising indirect tax mechanism, quality norms for the manufacturing sector and incentives to boot presence in mid tech and high-tech sectors.

Radhika Rao

Senior Economist – Eurozone, India, Indonesia
[email protected]



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