India markets: Bonds await support, tariff relief steps
Awaiting RBI’s direction.
Group Research - Econs, Radhika Rao21 Nov 2025
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Onshore bonds tread water, awaiting cues on the central bank’s policy direction, support measures for the debt markets and the overall liquidity stance. Markets are also keen to gauge investors’ appetite at the INR300bn debt sale on Friday. 10Y benchmark yield (generic) has held stubbornly above 6.5%, caught between 6.45%-6.55% since Oct25, more than 25bp higher than June levels. Firstly, focus is on the likelihood of a bond buying support by the central bank, after a jump in recent secondary market purchases proved to be driven more by the need to replace maturities rather than cap yields (note). Expectations are that a formal announcement on open market operations might follow towards late-2025, which will have a salutary impact on bonds. Secondly, local press reported that the prospect of India entering the flagship Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index strengthened after large foreign investors provided positive feedback, which is part of the process before a decision on any formal inclusion in made. An update might be due in January. This newsflash provided brief relief, but yields returned to familiar ranges soon after. Eligible FAR securities are already a part of the Bloomberg Emerging Market Local Currency Government Index, with the weightage increased in a phased manner. Lastly, the RBI’s rate move in December will be a close call, as 2QFY GDP data in late-Nov will show growth at a firm 7%+ (India: Stable inflation and demand pick-up) while October inflation slipped to a series low. To make a case for rate reductions despite strong growth numbers, the RBI MPC will likely highlight risks to the forward-looking growth trajectory, with prevailing low inflation providing them with the necessary room to reduce rates.

Discussions around the proposed US-India trade deal have continued, with Commerce and Industry Minister Goyal signaling that its conclusion will be contingent on the deal being ‘balanced and fair’. While progress is awaited, the government approved measures worth INR 450bn (0.13% of GDP) to support exporters, especially MSMEs, for sectors that have been most impacted by the higher US tariffs. The package consists of a) INR 200bn towards a credit guarantee scheme (CGSE), akin to measures undertaken during the pandemic. This will provide collateral free support as additional working capital of up to 20% of sanctioned export limits; loans up to INR 500mn each; b) Exports Promotion Mission (EPM) – consisting of Interest Equalisation Scheme and Market Access Initiative – which had an initially outlay of INR 22bn will have an expanded outlay of INR 250bn and run over a five-year period till FY31. Fiscal impact will be modest and spread over an extended period, with a material impact likely from the CGSE steps.

Radhika Rao

Senior Economist – Eurozone, India, Indonesia
[email protected]



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