- Unchanged policy stance at Bank of Korea meeting on the cards.
- We expect 7.5% growth out of India’s July-Sept quarter.
- China PMI to nudge up, but stay below 50.
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Central bank meetings
Bank of Korea (Nov 27): The Bank of Korea is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 2.50% at its final meeting of the year, while maintaining an easing bias. Rising property prices and a weaker KRW remain key obstacles to near-term rate cuts. Following the government’s cooling measures — including tighter LTV and DTI ratios as well as adjustments to transaction and capital gains taxes — Seoul’s property price growth has slowed to 0.3% on a weekly basis in early November, down from a 0.7% peak in mid-October. It remains to be seen whether this cooling trend will continue. The KRW has continued to depreciate against the USD this month, driven by a stronger USD and a softer JPY. These financial stability concerns are likely to prompt the BOK to remain on hold at this meeting.
Forthcoming data releases
India: 2QFY26 (Jul-Sep25) real GDP pace is expected to benefit from statistical effects like a low base (2QFY25’s 5.6%), and weak deflators. In terms of drivers, we expect government spending, rural consumption, better real purchasing power due to weak inflation and frontloading of exports to have perked growth, while private sector investments and sector-specific drag weighs. Rural demand likely benefited from above normal monsoon rainfall, while urban spending received a hand from tax support and low inflation, even as wage growth moderated. Impact of the indirect tax rationalisation will be more apparent in the third quarter as it took effect in late-2QFY. Centre’s capex spending rose 31% yoy in the quarter feeding into investment growth, while revex expenditure minus interest payments dropped 11% yoy, suggesting slower contribution from government consumption. With our 2H projections pointing to an average of 6.7%, full-year FY26 growth stands at 7.2%.
China: Manufacturing PMI is expected to edge up from 49.0 in October to 49.4 in November, driven mainly by seasonal factors. Industrial activity will rebound after the National Day holiday dampened production in October. New export orders are also likely to rise in line with strong trade momentum. International cargo flights and container ship throughput at 20 major ports have increased by 10.2%yoy and 30%yoy, respectively, in the first half of November.
Hong Kong SAR: Export growth is expected to ease from 16.1%yoy in October to 10.7% in November, reflecting softer external demand for Chinese goods. Electronics and machinery exports saw a notable slowdown, dropping from 12.6%yoy in October to just 1.2% in November. Given that Chinese electronics account for roughly 65% of Hong Kong’s re-exports, weakening demand in these categories will weigh on overall Hong Kong export performance. On the import side, growth is expected to remain steady at around 13.0%yoy in November, supported by improving consumer sentiment and rising tourist arrivals.
Japan, South Korea, Taiwan: October industrial production data are due this week. AI-related tech demand remains the key driver of manufacturing output across North Asia, with Taiwan leading the region. Taiwan’s industrial production is expected to slow modestly to 14.4% yoy in October from 15.5% in the previous month, in line with a slight softening in export orders. South Korea’s industrial production is expected to register a notable slowdown to single digit growth, mainly due to working day effects associated with the Chuseok holiday. Japan is projected to show no growth in October industrial production, consistent with the production forecast index.
Singapore: Singapore’s still-contained inflation likely rose further in October 2025, while industrial production (IP) growth remained robust. We expect higher headline inflation of 0.9% yoy in October, marking the second consecutive gradual increase from its bottom in August. This rise was likely driven by faster private transport price increases, fuelled by a pick-up in car prices, and increasing core inflation, despite low and stable accommodation inflation. The core inflation rise stemmed from a rebound in goods price increases, and an uptick in essential services inflation like healthcare and education.
We expect strong IP growth of 14.0% yoy in October, which extended the solid expansion of 16.1% yoy in September. The strength was underpinned by momentum in electronics output, aligning with the robust 30% yoy growth in electronics domestic exports in the same month. Electronics manufacturing and exports continued to benefit from US tariff exemptions on electronics goods, and positive demand related to artificial intelligence. Favourable base effects possibly contributed to the rebound of some manufacturing activities, such as precision engineering and chemicals.
Economics Team
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