Volatility could rise amid changing Fed pricing and JPY risks
JPY vols could rise on budget risks.
Group Research - Econs, Chang Wei Liang14 Nov 2025
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The USD’s slippage could halt and reverse after long end US rates climbed on the back of softer demand in the 30Y Treasury auction overnight. Adding further support is a pare back in pricing for a December Fed rate cut from 66% last week to 50:50. Rhetoric from Fed officials overnight has been quite noncommittal towards a Dec rate cut. Daly said it is premature to decide on a cut or not, while Hammack also expressed worries over persistent inflation, and think the Fed should remain somewhat restrictive to pressure inflation. This places more importance on US data releases including non-farm payrolls, which will be reported over the coming days after the government reopens.

USD/JPY remains below the psychological 155 level for now, but risks are accentuated.  Any sustained break above 155 should prompt more verbal intervention, with Finance Minister Katayama having warned on Wednesday that the government is watching for any excessive and disorderly moves. However, the credibility of such FX warnings may be somewhat undercut by PM Takaichi’s intent to implement more fiscal stimulus. A ‘Truss-like’ shock, if fiscal worries over the budget are realized, cannot be discounted. The likelihood of elevated JPY volatility, and potential FX market intervention, could be higher than usual.

USD/CNH has eased below 7.10, catching down to the steady string of USD/CNY fixings below 7.09. The easing of trade tensions with the US has been supportive for the RMB, alongside increased   foreign interest in Chinese equities. That said, economic conditions remain weak, underscored by weaker than expected new loans and aggregate financing data yesterday.  While Chinese corporate borrowings have picked up, households’ demand for loans has remained sluggish, weighed by declines in real estate prices.

Chang Wei Liang

FX & Credit Strategist
[email protected]



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