CNY rates: More balanced CGB outlook
A more neutral outlook.
Group Research - Econs, Samuel Tse14 Nov 2025
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While we continue to see receive opportunities in CGBs, the outlook has turned more balanced. On the macro front, the recent trade truce has lifted sentiment on China’s growth prospects. Export orders could be bottoming soon and in turn supporting hiring sentiment. Industrial profits have been improving in September, aided by supply-side adjustments under the anti-involution campaign. Meanwhile, the PBOC drained RMB 1.53tn through open-market operations in 4Q amid rising FX volatility. Although USD/CNY has stayed broadly range-bound, the DXY has rebounded to the 99–100 range. Weakness in regional peers such as KRW and JPY could add depreciation pressure on the CNY.

However, we believe the PBOC is committed to its accommodative stance. PPI has improved for four consecutive months but remains in contraction for the 36th months. CPI returned to positive territory, yet a sustained improvement will require more easing. Real policy rates adjusted for CPI and PPI remain higher than in the U.S. and Japan. This is constraining corporate investment and household spending. Against this backdrop, we expect another 10bps cut in the 1Y LPR by year-end. PBOC’s bond purchases are likely to continue until data confirms that disinflationary pressures have fully eased. Notably, the central bank’s claims on government remain modest at 1.6% of GDP—well below the 6% peak seen during the GFC.



Samuel Tse 謝家曦

Senior Economist- China & Hong Kong 資深經濟學家 - 中國及香港
[email protected]




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