USD Rates: Fiscal worries return
Treasuries sold across the curve.
Group Research - Econs, Eugene Leow6 Nov 2025
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US Treasuries sold off across the curve as the focus shifts to the US's fiscal woes as stock indices stabilize. There were four reasons for the sustained uptick in yields overnight. First, in the quarterly refunding exercise, investors focused on hints that the Treasury would increase the supply of bonds sold in the next fiscal year. This more than offsets the message that the bond supply would be kept broadly stable for several quarters. Second, the Supreme Court appears to be sceptical of the legality of Trump's tariffs under IEEPA. While a decision has not been made, investors could be focusing on the widening revenue shortfall in the near term as refunds get made. Third, data was firm. ADP employment figures came in firm (actual: 42k, consensus: 30k). In the absence of official data, this print underscores a labour market that is still holding up. Separately, ISM services PMI has also ticked up. Fourth, the tech-driven risk off appears to have dissipated, easing safe-haven demand. The price action suggests that investors are reluctant to bring 10Y UST yields below 4% in the absence of risk aversion. Moreover, with alternative data not pointing to a US economy falling off the cliff and fiscal issues a recurrent theme, US yields have remained supported with rate cut bets being pared. We maintain that the Fed is still more likely to cut in December, but the path / pace forward is much less clear.

Eugene Leow

Senior Rates Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]
 

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