
The DXY Index could not extend its rise above 100, reflecting ebbing US policy risk. Risk appetite improved overnight following the Supreme’s Court’s scepticism about Trump’s reciprocal tariffs and Republican setbacks in state elections, which may open the door to ending the US government shutdown. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite indices rose by 0.5%, 0.4%, and 0.7%, respectively. EUR/USD may stabilize above 1.15 while GBP/USD held above 1.30 ahead of today’s Bank of England’s decision to keep the bank rate unchanged at 4%. Commodity and Asian currencies may find support from hopes of reduced protectionism and improving risk appetite.
The US Treasury 10Y bond yield rose 7.2 bps to 4.16% overnight, driven by the US Supreme Court’s scepticism that US President Donald Trump’s use of the tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) was lawful. Justice Sonia Sotomayor noted that using emergency powers to raise tariff revenue appeared more like a budgetary tool than a national security measure, renewing market concerns that a ruling against Trump could remove a revenue source and deepen the fiscal deficit. The Court’s tone suggested a majority may be uncomfortable with giving the president unchecked authority under IEEPA, seeing it as a constitutional overreach. However, the Supreme Court only heard oral arguments yesterday, with a ruling only likely by the end of the year.
Hope has emerged that the US government shutdown, now officially the longest in history, may end as soon as next week, before Thanksgiving. The state elections in Virginia, New Jersey, and New York City handed the Democratic Party meaningful victories, placing more blame on the Republican Party for the political stalemate that led to furloughed federal workers, halted services, and economic drag. Despite the electoral wake-up call, the Senate still requires 60 votes for most funding bills, and neither party appears ready to yield. Democrats still want to secure healthcare subsidies, but Republicans insist on reopening the government first. The path to a finding a resolution remains bumpy. 
The JPY’s weakness around 154 per USD is drawing consistent verbal interventions. Vice Finance Minister Atsushi Mimura noted that the JPY’s depreciation was driven by speculation about Japan’s fiscal stimulus. Growth Strategy Minister Minoru Kiuchi confirmed that the Takaichi government has established a new panel to determine Japan’s growth strategy by next summer. Mimura noted that USD/JPY did not reflect the fundamentals indicated by interest rate differentials, countering market talk that the preconditions for an immediate intervention had not been met. During his visit to Japan last week, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent highlighted the importance of monetary policy in anchoring inflation expectations and preventing excessive exchange rate volatility. Bessent was also encouraged by Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama’s “deep understanding of how Abenomics has moved from a purely reflationary policy to a program that must balance growth and inflationary concerns for the citizens of Japan.”
Quote of the Day
“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.”
Mahatma Gandhi
November 6 in history
In 1913, Mahatma Gandhi was arrested for leading an Indian miners' march in South Africa.



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