A window opens to transition from escalation in March to de-escalation in April
De-escalation hopes in Iran conflict.
Group Research - Econs, Philip Wee26 Mar 2026
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Markets showed signs of desensitized risk in overnight markets, as the Iran conflict narrative shifts from active conflict toward a potential diplomatic "off-ramp," anchored by President Donald Trump’s "mission accomplished" rhetoric. While US-Iran talks remain at a stalemate, Brent crude’s inability to rush significantly above $100 suggests that "peak fear" is receding, replaced by a pivot toward major-power diplomacy and a potential normalization by early summer. Here, markets have taken hope in Trump’s new May 14-15 summit date with Chinese President Xi Jinping, which was delayed by Trump’s need to steward Operation Epic Fury.

Additionally, this shift is increasingly fuelled by domestic political urgency, following the Democratic special election victory in Florida’s House District 87, including Mar-a-Lago, which is viewed as a backyard rebuke for the president. This 21-point swing highlights a growing voter preoccupation with cost-of-living issues (e.g., higher pump prices) over geopolitical manoeuvres, placing pressure on the White House to deliver a tangible diplomatic or economic win to arrest sagging approval ratings ahead of the November midterms.

As the March 28 deadline for President Trump’s ultimatum approaches, markets are hoping the conflict pivots from brinkmanship toward a de-escalation window. While Tehran maintains a stance of public defiance, it is open to managing indirect negotiations with the US through intermediaries, including Pakistan, Egypt, Turkey, and Oman. While it is not the full opening demanded by Trump’s ultimatum, Tehran’s decision to begin granting selective access to vessels from friendly nations like Thailand and China has provided a preliminary, if fragile, relief valve for energy markets to the Hormuz chokepoint. For more signs of trade normalization, markets are paying attention to global maritime insurers’ willingness to rescind the Notice of Cancellation orders and begin underwriting transits for non-hostile vessels.

If the path towards a diplomatic solution is kept alive amid further directional easing in the Hormuz chokepoint, this weekend could determine whether the greenback's war-driven buoyancy ends up as a temporary deviation from its broader structural decline.

Quote of the Day
“The chief function of the body is to carry the brain around.”
     Thomas A. Edison

March 26 in history
MERCOSUR was established in 1991 by founding member – Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay – to create a South American regional common market.



Philip Wee

Senior FX Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]

 

 
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