Philippines markets: Energy emergency to counter supply disruptions
National energy emergency.
Group Research - Econs, Radhika Rao26 Mar 2026
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Philippines declared a national energy emergency on Wednesday to counter risks posed by Middle east conflict and consequent disruption to supplies. Emphasized as an “precautionary tool”, President Marcos highlighted in an executive order that there was an imminent risk that the economy would face “critically low energy supply”. The country had previously declared a similar state of emergency during the Covid19 pandemic. To address risks, a committee has been formed, which along with the Department of Energy, will chart measures to ensure availability of basic needs of the population, maintain access to public services, enforce energy conservation efforts, prevent hoarding/ supply manipulation, and fast track authorisation to state firms to procure additional supplies. To shield purchasing power, the government might extend transportation subsidies and social welfare support. Unlike peers, pump prices in the Philippines broadly track global movements in the absence of broad subsidies, which might organically lead to some extent of demand impact. The Budget department has reportedly approved release of additional funds to the energy ministry to source contingency supplies, with current oil reserves, reportedly, at a little over a month. Food carries a significant weight in ASEAN-6’s consumer price index basket, with Thailand, Vietnam, and Philippines amongst the most vulnerable as fertiliser prices have increased sharply. 

Onshore financial markets have already been under pressure this month, with the peso (depreciated to a record low) and equity markets amongst the regional underperformers on month-to-date basis. The BSP will be wary of lowering rates further in this environment, preferring to stay on an extended pause. We remove the last rate cut in our baseline forecast. Before the Middle east conflict, official growth forecasts had already been cut to 4.6% for 2026 and 5.9% in 2027 (vs 5.4% and 6.3% earlier), as graft-related investigations and slower public disbursements had dampened the outlook despite the 225bp cuts in benchmark rates.

Radhika Rao

Senior Economist – Eurozone, India, Indonesia
[email protected]
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