Indonesia markets: Moody’s cuts outlook, affirms rating
Moody’s negative rating outlook .
Group Research - Econs, Radhika Rao6 Feb 2026
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Moody’s Ratings changed Indonesia’s rating outlook to ‘negative; from ‘stable’ on late Thursday, while affirming the Baa2 rating. The agency expressed far ranging concerns, citing “reduced predictability in policymaking, which risks undermining policy effectiveness and points to weakening governance”. There was also a mention of an increase in spending without commensurate revenue generation, emerging “weakness in policy planning and communication, with implications for policy credibility”, and establishment of the new investment agency and its ambitious investment agenda which “raise risks to policy credibility and potential contingent liabilities for the sovereign”. Moody’s had last upgraded Indonesia’s sovereign from Baa3 to Baa2 (higher in the investment grade ladder) in 2018 backed by improved credit metrics and economic resilience and had since reaffirmed its outlook in the past few annual reviews. A negative outlook change typically reflects a cautious view on the sovereign, opening the window for follow-up action over the next 12-18 months (link). Contingent on the course of policy action in this timeframe, the next move might be an eventual downgrade in the rating or a return to the stable outlook.

In the near-term, onshore financial markets are likely to witness kneejerk weakness due to the outlook change, with much onus on the domestic policy response thereafter. An outlook change doesn’t carry immediate changes in rating-sensitive investment mandates, although there might be lower appetite to build additional exposure, besides a higher preference for shorter-tenor papers. We note that the rating agency’s action is policy-driven not cyclical, thus providing the room to take corrective action. A stronger commitment to the -3% of GDP fiscal deficit cap and debt level ceilings will be timely, alongside a roadmap to gradually raise revenue measures to finance welfare plans. It will also be important to affirm the central bank’s independence, ranging from the composition of the decision-making body to preserving its policy mandate, to retain credibility. More transparency in the capital structure, rationalisation of state-owned units and clarity on the mandate of the state investment agency, will strengthen confidence of the rating agency and other key stakeholders. By extension, these will help contain eventual contingent liabilities on the government’s books. Besides market-friendly communication, a medium-term reform and fiscal path could allay concerns over any potential negative rating action. Separately, 4Q25 GDP growth report yesterday saw the economy pose an upside surprise (Indonesia: Balancing policy, safeguarding growth). 

Radhika Rao

Senior Economist – Eurozone, India, Indonesia
[email protected]
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