EUR and GBP are near their closing levels in 2025
EUR and GBP declines may lose momentum.
Group Research - Econs, Philip Wee6 Feb 2026
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Following the European Central Bank meeting, EUR/USD may find support around 1.1746, the closing level in 2025. After depreciating 0.6% to 1.1777 in the first four days of this week, the FX pair is slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (1.1767) of the rally from 1.1573 to 1.2081 over January 19-27. Stepping back, EUR/USD’s uptrend has turned square-root, marked by a price channel currently between 1.16 and 1.2110, following its 13.8% surge in the first half of 2025. 



Although the USD debasement trade has eroded after gold plunged from its stellar high of USD5600/oz, gold found support just above its end-2025 level of 4320 and may consolidate around 4600-5000 during China’s long Lunar New Year holiday. 



ECB President Christine Lagarde downplayed concerns about the EUR’s recent strength on inflation, reaffirming that inflation and monetary policy are “in a good place.” During her press conference, Lagarde urged reporters to take a broader, medium-term view, cautioning against reading the recent decline in headline inflation to below the 2% target as a simple and sufficient signal to resume rate cuts.  With CPI inflation at 1.7% and core CPI at 2.2%, the ECB judged that inflation was consistent with its 2% target, reinforcing its view that price pressures have normalised even as it remains cautious about declaring victory prematurely. Lagarde continued to advocate a greater international role for the EUR, which she believed would increase the Euro Area’s resilience to external geopolitical shocks. 



GBP/USD suffered a double whammy, tumbling by 0.8% to 1.3550 overnight. First, the market significantly increased bets, from 18.6% to 61%, that the Bank of England would cut the bank rate by 25 bps cut at the next March 19 meeting. Although the BOE left the bank rate unchanged at 3.75%, BOE Governor Andrew Bailey projected inflation to fall back to its 2% target earlier by spring, downgraded its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.9% from 1.2%, and saw the unemployment rate rising to 5.3% instead of peaking at 5.1%. Second, GBP’s political risk premium has increased significantly. Prime Minister Keir Starmer is facing a political crisis, triggered by the Mandelson case, escalating into calls within his Labour Party for a leadership change, and opposition parties pressing for a vote of confidence. 



Following its 2.9% YTD surge to 1.3868 on January 27, GBP/USD has depreciated 2.4% to 1.3530 on February 5, with a possible support level around its end-2025 level of 1.3475.

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     Louis L'Amour

February 6 in history
Sir Stamford Raffles officially founded Singapore in 1819.







Philip Wee

Senior FX Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]

 

 
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