JPY Rates: Running with the Takaichi trade
Snap election worries.
Group Research - Econs, Eugene Leow15 Jan 2026
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With Japan snap elections possible as early as 8 February (see economics writeup here), we reckon that the Takaichi trades will continue to play out over the coming few weeks. From a rates perspective, investors will be worried about further fiscal expansion, especially if the mandate turns out to be strong. Moreover, there this could also mean implicit support for the BOJ to keep rates accommodative relative to what economic conditions warrant. Looking at the domestic calendar, there does not seem to be any near-term events that would dissuade market participants from bringing long-term JGB yields higher and the JGB curve steeper. Notably, snap elections are at least several weeks away, and it is extremely unlikely that the BOJ will hike rates next week (since it just hiked in December).

Accordingly, we think that the only reasonable way to stop the Takaichi trades may be if the pace of yen weakness becomes excessive and the authorities would have to go meaningfully beyond verbal intervention. Notably, intervention in the yen may not necessarily mean that yields head lower. To be fair, some carry trade unwind (if the yen strengthens too quickly) could force yields temporarily lower as sentiment takes a hit. However, a more sustainable move lower in long end JPY rates (and a flatter curve) would likely be possible only if the BOJ will speeds up the pace of tightening (yen weakness fans inflation fears). If an erosion of confidence ensue, there will be a sudden spike in belly JPY rates. In the immediate term, a pay opportunity could emerge if JPY rates come under downward pressure from the overnight UST rally (driven in part by shakier sentiment on tech stocks).

Eugene Leow

Senior Rates Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]



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