- Singapore will hold its 14th GE since independence on May 3, 2025.
- The GE will be the first electoral test for the fourth generation (4G) leadership.
- GDP growth, excluding the pandemic, moderated on average into the polls and stabilised thereafter.
- Core inflation tends to be stable on average below 2.0% YoY over the past cycles.
- FDI flows were robust on average, reflecting strong investor confidence.
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Below is a summary; for full report and detailed charts, please download the PDF
General elections on May 3, 2025
Singapore will hold its 14th general elections (GE) since independence in 1965 on May 3, 2025. The GE are of particular significance. They will mark the first electoral test for the fourth generation (4G) leadership helmed by Prime Minister Lawrence Wong. The polls will occur about a year after the smooth leadership transition in May 2024 from former PM Lee Hsien Loong.
The GE will also occur amidst a shift away from globalisation and free trade, trends that have delivered tremendous success for Singapore’s highly open and trade reliant economy, as highlighted by PM Wong when the elections were called on April 15. The increasingly uncertain and protectionist global backdrop spurred by the US’s tariff agenda therefore sets the stage for economic growth to be amongst the key issues, alongside jobs, cost-of-living, and/or housing that have been part of national conversations in recent years. The Forward Singapore agenda, a key thrust of the 4G leadership’s policies, reflected in the recent two budgets, and underpins the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP)’s election manifesto, would also be put to the test (see ’Forward Singapore: A roadmap towards resilience’).
Investors will be closely watching if the GE results produce a stable and effective government with a strong mandate to sustain the political stability and continuity in the investor-friendly business environment that will serve Singapore well over the coming years. The GE will see 97 elected parliamentary seats across 33 constituencies, an increase from the previous GE. The incumbent PAP is set to face fierce contests, as seen in the past few polls, from various opposition parties such as the Workers’ Party (WP), Progress Singapore Party (PSP), Singapore Democratic Party (SDP), Red Dot United (RDU), People’s Alliance for Reform (PAR), People’s Power Party (PPP), and National Solidarity Party (NSP).
Election event study
In this report, we analyse Singapore’s economic and market trends around election cycles (without predicting the election outcome). We acknowledge that Singapore’s trends, given its small and open economy, and as a price taker, tend to be closely linked to prevailing global conditions. We examine several indicators: real GDP growth, real income and unemployment rates, core inflation and currency performance, capital flows, and public sector variables.
Our event study covered four GE since 2006, spanning the period just before the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) to the previous polls during the depth of COVID-19 pandemic crisis. These elections were led by the 3G leadership under former PM Lee. We average the various indicators, and consider the volatility around the data’s average to tease out trends during election seasons.
Key trends (see PDF for detailed analysis and views)
Economic growth, excluding the pandemic, moderated on average into the polls and stabilised thereafter.
In the three election years preceding the 2020 GE, resident households enjoyed higher real incomes. Real incomes fell in 2020, when the unemployment rate rose due to pandemic-related job losses. Excluding the pandemic period, the citizen unemployment rate tends to fall on average into the GE and remained slightly above 3.0% thereafter.
Core inflation tends to be stable on average below 2.0% YoY over the past cycles. The Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (SGD NEER) tends to trend higher on average in the 12 months prior to and after the GE.
Long-term capital inflows, reflected by FDI flows as a % of GDP, were robust on average across the past four election cycles. Short-term capital inflows, measured by portfolio inflows as a % of GDP, looked stable on average across the four election periods, two quarters before and after the event, and picking up subsequently.
Public sector growth trends, on average excluding the pandemic stimulus, were mixed around the GE. Government consumption was more expansionary leading up to the polls on average across 2006, 2011, and 2015. Public investment growth gained momentum post-elections on average across 2006, 2011, and 2015.
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