Short AUD-CHF on Geopolitical Concerns
Geopolitical concerns may dominate FX movements
Treasury & Markets, Terence Wu19 Apr 2024
  • We retain the medium-term negative CHF view
  • But there is an opportunity for the CHF to strengthen in the immediate horizon
  • The resultant risk-off environment exacerbates other AUD-negative driver
  • Drivers like RMB weakness create a broadly AUD-negative fundamental setup
  • There is scope to be short AUD-CHF as an expression of potentially worsening geopolitical situation
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Safe haven dynamics to support the CHF; Confluence of AUD-negatives

  • Consistent readers of this publication will know that we have been negative on the CHF since March (see the 8 Mar and 22 Mar write-ups). We have also turned negative on the AUD last week (see the 12 Apr write-up). The medium-term, Swiss National Bank-driven (SNB) negative CHF arguments remain in place, but geopolitical uncertainty may see the CHF supported in the immediate horizon. For the AUD, negative arguments have strengthened further over the past week.
  • Central bank dynamics have been the primary FX driver this year. However, since the Iranian drone and missile attack on Israel on 12 Apr, geopolitical uncertainties have taken over as the primary concern.
  • It is worth noting that Iran telegraphed this attack in advance, giving Israel and allies time to prepare. The actual damage is minimal. Iran has also signalled that it regards the matter as “concluded,” but warned that it will respond should there be a retaliation from Israel and allies. On its part, Israel has indeed vowed to “exact a price” after the action. This took the form of a retaliatory strike on Iran on the morning of 19 Apr. There is a clear danger of a tit-for-tat escalation going forward.
  • In times of uncertainty, we expect the flight-to-safety dynamic to support safe haven assets. In the FX space, the CHF is one of these traditional safe havens. Indeed, since 12 Apr, the CHF has been the best-performing G-10 currency against the USD. Thus, we expect the market to temporarily put aside the SNB-driven negative CHF arguments to focus on its safe haven characteristics in the near-term. If we see sustained escalation of Middle East tensions, the CHF may continue to outperform in the upcoming weeks.    
  • As for the AUD, the impact of the geopolitical concerns is the exact opposite. As a cyclical currency, the AUD tends to weaken in a risk-off environment. Unsurprisingly, the AUD is one of the worst performers within the G-10 space last week.
  • There are a couple of other AUD-negatives that have come to the fore at the same time. Beyond geopolitics, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has clearly signalled a delay in Fed rate cuts. It is an extension of the hawkish Fed posture, translating to a risk-off reaction across different asset classes. In a way, there is a double-whammy of risk-off drivers.
  • The other AUD-negative is renewed RMB depreciation pressure. The AUD has a traditionally high correlation with the RMB, given their close trade links. Since late March, there has been increased RMB depreciation pressure, albeit at a gradual pace. Another signal of that depreciation bias was seen last week, when the People's Bank of China (PBoC) set the USD-CNY morning fix at 7.1028 on 16 Apr, the first time above 7.1000 since 22 Mar, and weakest since 1 Mar. The fix has not fallen below 7.1000 since. In setting higher fixes, the central bank has given the USD-CNY more room to move higher. Some controls on the RMB have been loosened over the past week. Expect ongoing RMB depreciation bias to be a negative for the AUD.
Figure 1: RMB depreciation weighs negatively on the AUD

Source: Bloomberg, DBS


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