South Korea markets: BOK signals end of rate-cut cycle
End of BOK rate cuts.
Group Research - Econs, Ma Tieying28 Nov 2025
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The Bank of Korea (BOK) clearly signalled the end of its rate-cut cycle at its 27 November meeting, keeping the policy rate unchanged at 2.50%. Notably, the policy statement removed language indicating the BOK would maintain a rate-cutting stance. In the post-meeting press conference, the governor noted that the policy rate is now approaching a neutral level. Additional details showed diminishing support for further easing: three of six MPC members remained open to rate cuts over the next three months, down from four in October and five in August.
 

KRW weakness and a rebound in property prices were highlighted as key reasons for the BOK’s reluctance to cut further. Persistent one-way KRW depreciation—driven by domestic capital outflows, foreign equity selling, and herd behaviour—poses upside risks to inflation. While Seoul real estate prices have moderated following October’s tax and credit restrictions, expectations for renewed price increases remain elevated.

 

The BOK also adopted a slightly more constructive view on the economy. In its quarterly outlook, it revised GDP growth forecasts up to 1.0% for 2025 (from 0.9%) and 1.8% for 2026 (from 1.6%). CPI forecasts for 2025–2026 were nudged higher to 2.1% for both years (from 2.0% and 1.9%).

 

Rates outlook: Given the BOK’s continued focus on financial stability risks and resilient economic activity, we remove the final 25bps rate cut previously expected in 1Q26. We now anticipate the policy rate will remain at 2.50% through 2026.

 

KTB outlook: 10Y KTB yields should remain steady in the near term. Investors have largely priced in the BOK’s neutral stance. The 10Y KTB–policy rate spread has already swung from –70bps to +40bps, a key resistance level since mid-2023. KTB has shown some relative attractiveness comparing to UST. The negative spread versus the 10Y UST has narrowed from about –195bps to –74bps. Also, the falling UST yields could keep KTB yields in check. 

Ma Tieying, CFA

Senior Economist - Japan, South Korea, & Taiwan 
[email protected]

Chua Han Teng, CFA

Senior Economist - Asean
[email protected]



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