
The DXY Index rose to 99.6 overnight after finding support at 99 last week. Despite the futures market lowering odds for a December Fed cut to less than 50%, the US Treasury 10Y yield eased for a second day to 4.11% after rising 7 bps to 4.15% in the first two weeks of November. Investors may be seeking safety from US tech stocks, which have remained weak on persistent worries about stretched AI overvaluations. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 2% in the first days of this week, following the 0.5% and 3% declines in the previous two weeks. However, the DXY’s recovery is not assured amid fears of downside surprises in Thursday’s US nonfarm payrolls report. Resuming data releases after the government shutdown ended, the Department of Labour reported that initial jobless claims increased to 232k for the week ended October 18, up from 218k for the September 20 week. Consensus expects NFP to remain weak at 54k in September, increasing from 22k in August. With the DXY near the top of its 96.2-100.4 range, any disappointing labour data that renews Fed cut bets would increase the risk-reward skew towards a downside correction.
USD/JPY rose 0.2% to 155.5 overnight, its highest closing level since late January. The 10Y JGB yield rose further above 1.70% to 1.746%. Japan’s preliminary GDP contracted by an annualized 1.8% QoQ saar in 3Q25, supporting Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama’s proposed economic stimulus package of at least JPY 17 trillion (USD 110 billion). The OIS market lowered the probability of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan at its December 19 meeting to 27.4% from slightly above 50% earlier this month. However, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda signalled, during his meeting with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, that the central bank has yet to abandon its path to cautiously reduce the degree of monetary easing through rate hikes. While intervention risks have slowed its ascent, USD/JPY still needs a BOJ hike and a Fed cut in December to lower it.
AUD/USD is supported within this month’s range of 0.6460-0.6580. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s minutes cited modestly higher inflation for the decision to keep rates unchanged at the November 4 meeting. The futures market continues to price in a zero probability of a rate cut at the December 9 meeting and has little conviction in any cut in 2026. The Melbourne Institute reported that inflation increased again to 3.1% YoY in October, up from the 2.4% low in June, and above the 2-3% target. However, as a pro-cyclical and risk-sensitive currency, AUD is not immune to any US-led stock market sell-off that triggers an unwinding of carry trades.
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November 19 in history
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