USD Rates: A hawkish jolt even as the Fed cuts
Flattening trend intact.
Group Research - Econs, Eugene Leow30 Oct 2025
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US Treasuries got a jolt as Fed Chair Powell delivered a hawkish cut. The surprise did not stem from the decision to cut the FFR by 25bps and to conclude QT (by 1 December), as such moves were widely expected. Principal payments from MBSs will then be directed into bills. There were also no surprises in the FOMC statement, which continued to emphasize downside risks to employment. The voting pattern reflects split views (Miran dissented in favour of a 50bps cut while Schmid dissented in favour of a hold) which are well known to the market.

The surprise came from Powell’s comment that December’s cut was not a “forgone conclusion.” From a policy making perspective, Powell appears to want some optionality in December and push back against very aggressive Fed cut expectations.

We do not think the Fed outlook has materially changed and see two more cuts in this easing cycle. Data will still be scarce and there is no telling how long the government shutdown will last. Downside risks to economy remains top of mind. The jump in yields was probably a needed recalibration as the bond market had probably swung too dovish pricing in a terminal rate of 3% by end-2026. The market has since removed one cut from the terminal rate pricing and now see 67% odds of a cut in December (previously close to 100%).  This is an event that we had cautioned, considering the buoyancy seen in the stock market. It took Powell’s comment to prompt the market to reassess. If the economy experiences only a modest slowdown while risky assets push higher, there is no need for the Fed to loosen financial conditions even more.

At these levels, we think that USD rates are more appropriately priced. That said, we think that the very front end (<1Y) USD rates may have turned too cautious. We still see high odds of a December cut before Powell takes the chance to slow the pace of easing if needed. Further out the curve (2Y-5Y), it may require another move higher before receive positions start to make sense. Curve wise, the flattening trend across the 2Y/10Y over the past few weeks is still intact. However, downside may be limited from here and we expect 40bps to hold. 

Eugene Leow

Senior Rates Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]
 

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