
The USD is soft ahead of a potential dovish tilt at the FOMC meeting. Beyond the 25-bps cut already priced, markets expect the Fed to end Quantitative Tightening (QT) to avert a 2019-style funding squeeze in the money market. Following the softer-than-expected US CPI readings in September, the Fed is likely less worried about tariff-led inflation and more concerned about how the prolonged US government shutdown is adding to labour market weakness. As such, Fed Chair Jerome Powell may temper the Fed’s strict data-dependent stance in favour of a more pre-emptive approach that prioritises financial market stability and the emerging job worries in recent consumer surveys.
USD/JPY retreated to 152 overnight on verbal intervention after failing to break above 153. Japan's new economic revitalisation minister, Minoru Kiuchi, warned that the JPY’s weakness was eroding household and corporate purchasing power. US Treasury Secretary Scott said in post on X this morning that he was encouraged by Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama’s “deep understanding of how Abenomics has moved from a purely reflation policy to a program that must balance growth and inflationary concerns for the citizens of Japan.” Bessent had earlier remarked that the JPY would find its own level if the Bank of Japan followed the proper policy. Therefore, the BOJ meeting on October 30 could be a catalyst for USD/JPY to head lower to 150. Although the BOJ is expected to keep the policy rate unchanged at 0.50% tomorrow, it may highlight inflation risk from a weak JPY and signal a hike on December 19 to steer the policy rate towards its neutral level of 1%.
USD/CNY slipped below 7.10 for the first time since October 2024 on optimism over a de-escalation in US-China trade tensions. Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are expected to meet at the sidelines of the APEC Summit in South Korea tomorrow to formalise a trade framework that extends the tariff truce for a third time. Over the weekend’s ASEAN Summit, both sides indicated that Washington would drop its 100% threat on Chinese goods in exchange for Beijing delaying curbs on rare earth exports and increasing US soybeans purchases. Overall, Asian and commodity-led currencies have benefited from Trump’s trip to Asia this week, which appears aimed at recalibrating US trade policy to counter China’s regional influence through engagement than confrontation.
Quote of the Day
”Yesterday is not ours to recover, but tomorrow is ours to win or lose.”
Lyndon B. Johnson
October 29 in history
In 1929, the stock market crashed on Wall Street, known as "Black Tuesday," triggered the Great Depression.



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