Malaysia: Budget 2026 reaffirmed fiscal discipline; Downward bias to MGS yields
Budget 2026 is MGS friendly.
Group Research - Econs, Chua Han Teng14 Oct 2025
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Malaysia’s Budget 2026, announced by Prime Minister and Finance Minister Anwar Ibrahim, reaffirmed the government's continued commitment to fiscal sustainability, even amid more challenging global economic conditions stemming from US tariffs. The administration aims to reduce the federal government budget deficit, as a % of GDP, to 3.5% (MYR74.6bn) in 2026, and to an average of 3.2% for 2026-28 under its medium-term fiscal framework. This marks an improvement from the shortfall of 3.8% (MYR76.7bn) in 2025.

The gradual narrowing of the deficit in 2026 would result from higher planned revenue growth of 2.7% to MYR343.1bn over contained expenditure increase of 1.7% to MYR419.2bn (2.9% and 1.6% growth, respectively, in 2025). Both sides of the ledger would benefit from ongoing fiscal reforms extending into 2026. Government coffers are set to be supported by an expanded sales and services tax (already effective from July 2025), increased efficiency in tax collection through e-invoicing, and other measures like higher duties on cigarettes and alcohol and carbon taxes. These come at a time when real GDP growth is cushioned by domestic resilience despite external headwinds (2026: 4.0-4.5%, 2025: 4.0-4.8%). Spending is projected to be contained by a 14.1% reduction in subsidies and social assistance outlays, despite higher development expenditure increase of 3.1% aimed at sustaining economic competitiveness. Despite several subsidy rationalisation policies including September 2025’s RON95 reform, Malaysia’s inflation remains manageable. This has been due to a calibrated approach that balanced subsidy cuts with the impact on cost-of-living, amid benign global cost conditions. We therefore lower our average headline inflation forecast to 1.4% for 2025 and 2.0% for 2026. Malaysian government securities (MGS) yields have risen from their bottom in mid-August 2025, but muted inflation and prospects for lower net government borrowings due to a smaller fiscal deficit should anchor MGS yields with a downward bias.



Chua Han Teng, CFA

Senior Economist - Asean
[email protected]
 

 


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