We expect the Bank of England to deliver to lower the bank rate by 25 bps to 4% on August 7, following two reductions in May and February. A move this Thursday would align with the OIS market’s pricing of a consistent pace of one cut per quarter through early 2026, bringing the bank rate closer to its estimated neutral rate of 2.75-3%. Given the increased uncertainty surrounding the global economy, fuelled by the latest round of higher US tariffs affecting most countries, we doubt that BOE Governor Andrew Bailey will deviate from his script of gradual and cautious, data-dependent rate cuts. He is likely to disappoint GBP bears, who are hoping for a more aggressive trajectory on the two negative UK GDP growth (MoM) readings in April and May. However, UK economists have revised the UK’s 2025 growth outlook to 1.1% from 0.9% following the announcement of the US-UK trade deal on May 8.
GBP/USD has been more about the US rather than the UK in 2025. GBP’s rise from the year’s low of 1.21 in mid-January to its 1.38 high on July 1 was driven by the DXY Index’s worst first-half decline since 1973. Similarly, GBP’s decline to 1.3140 was aligned with the DXY’s broad global recovery in July. That trajectory was upended by last Friday’s significantly weaker US nonfarm payrolls, which revived worries about US growth and reinstated the market’s bet that the Fed would resume cuts in September, followed by easings in the remaining two meetings in 4Q25. Hence, the Fed’s guidance at the Jackson Hole Symposium on August 21-23 will be of critical importance. Following its rebound to 1.33 on August 1, GBP/USD could consolidate first in the 1.3150-1.3450 range seen in April-May.
Quote of the Day
“Success is not the key to happiness. Happiness is the key to success. If you love what you are doing, you will be successful.”
Albert Schweitzer
August 5 in history
In 1884, the cornerstone for the Statue of Liberty was laid on Bedloe's Island (now Liberty Island) in New York Harbor.
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