The DXY Index appreciated by 1.1% to almost 100 on reduced bets for Fed cuts this year. The futures markets reduced the odds of a September cut to less than 50% and priced in one instead of two cuts this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell called for a modestly restrictive stance despite two dissent votes by Fed Governors Michele Bowman and Christopher Waller for a 25 bps rate cut at the July 31 FOMC meeting. Powell saw tariffs starting to show in consumer prices, needing time to assess their impact amid uncertainty over America’s trade policy. Inflation expectations were consistent with the Fed’s price stability goals, helped by falling services inflation offsetting the tariff-induced goods inflation.
Powell added that the Fed looked through the tariffs by not hiking and keeping them where they are. This will not placate US President Donald Trump, who has been vocal in demanding aggressive cuts. Following the finalization of major trade deals by the August 1 tariff pause deadline, Trump will likely renew his attacks on Powell. While markets have been disappointed by the higher tariffs embedded in the so-called trade deals, they should take some relief that these agreements signalled a temporary closure to this month’s trade tensions. The careful management of the US-China trade relations through extending the tariff truce should reinforce this stability, even if risks remain.
Regarding Friday’s US jobs report, Powell emphasized that the main data to watch is the unemployment rate, which is expected to rise to 4.2% in June after its drop to 4.1% in May. However, markets will still be sensitive to nonfarm payrolls. Given that June’s stronger-than-expected 147k payrolls fuelled the USD’s recovery this month, a weaker-than-expected July print falling short of the 104k consensus could similarly bring the DXY down from the top of a recent price channel. Following the previous jobs report, the US Treasury 10Y yield has risen from its recent low of 4.185% on July 1 to a higher range of 4.35-4.50%. Despite the 5 bps increase to 4.37% after the FOMC decision, the yield is still closer to the floor of this range.
Quote of the Day
“The difference between something good and something great is attention to detail.”
Charles R. Swindoll
July 31 in history
The first US patent was granted for a potash process in 1790.
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