US President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Iran have agreed to a tentative phased ceasefire to end what he called “The 12-Day War.” However, neither Israel nor Iran have verified the ceasefire, which remains a political claim and not a legally binding agreement. Even unconfirmed, markets welcomed any signs of de-escalation as a reason to rally. Brent crude oil prices plunged 7.2% to USD71.48 per barrel, its lowest level since June 12. The S&P 500 Index rebounded by 1% to 6025, above the 6000 level for the first time in a week. The VIX Volatility Index fell below 20 to 19.83. Investors were relieved that Iran’s military missile strikes at US bases did not lead to US casualties, raising hopes of de-escalation rather than escalation.
The DXY Index rose as a haven to 99.4 during the European session but started declining sharply with the US Treasury 2Y bond yield during the US session, ending overnight lower by 0.3% at 98.4. Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman would support lowering interest rates in July if the inflation pressures remained contained. Last week, Fed Governor Christopher Waller signalled a possible rate cut in July on the one-off inflation from tariffs. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee also said the Fed could resume rate cuts if inflation from tariffs stayed subdued from burden sharing between the supplier, the producer, and the consumer.
During his semi-annual testimony to the House Committee on Financial Services today, Fed Chair Jerome Powell can expect pressure from US lawmakers on why the Fed’s stance is a pause, not a pivot. He would emphasize that the dot plot was not a forecast or a policy promise but an outlook of each FOMC committee member that will change with data. While inflation remains a primary concern, it appears less urgent. Powell should consider employment an increasing worry, especially now that 4-week moving average initial jobless claims have risen above levels seen during the last three Fed cuts in September, November, and December.
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