
Financial markets will play a waiting game as Washington and Iran weigh a fresh proposal to end the conflict, with oil prices off highs and regional currencies, especially the IDR and INR, pulling back from record lows on Wednesday. Ahead of that, central banks announced measures to defend their respective currencies. As part of a seven-step agenda, Bank Indonesia tightened the limit on foreign currency purchases, without supporting documents, to $25k from $50k monthly cap, after similar action last month. BI’s move to further tighten the FX threshold aims to streamline demand for US dollars and ensure purchases are tied to genuine underlying needs rather than speculative activity. Other steps include plans to continue with bond purchases (IDR 123trn purchases ytd) in coordination with the MOF. Besides strong intervention presence, attractive SRBI returns have also drawn offshore investors in recent weeks. Selected domestic primary dealers have also been allowed to sell in offshore NDFs. The risk of additional FX curbs/ measures will diminish if a US-Iran ceasefire provides a breather to the regional currencies.
India’s central bank is, reportedly, studying measures to draw in more dollar flows to curb rupee weakness and plug the balance of payments gap. This includes a plan for state-owned banks to sell foreign currency bonds, reviving a measure that was utilized nearly three decades ago. In late-90s, the biggest state-run bank had successfully raised more than $4bn via Resurgent India Bonds, followed by India Millennium Deposits in 2000 worth $5.5bn via papers denominated in dollars, euros and pounds. At this juncture, any foreign currency bond might also be accompanied by swaps for participating lenders to hedge currency risks, in turn helping to improve returns for investors. These swap arrangements will need to factor in higher prevailing US rates vs past cycles (including 2013 taper tantrum), which in turn implies higher subsidy support from the RBI. The quantum of issuance will also need to at least partially commensurate with current funding requirements. Authorities have undertaken other non-policy measures to stabilize the rupee in the past two months as discussed here and here. The rupee is likely to enjoy a temporary reprieve on global and local cues through a protracted rally is unlikely until the flows outlook improves materially.
Separately, the government approved a new tranche of a previously successful credit line guarantee scheme (ECLGS) 5.0worth INR 181bn ($1.9bn) for MSMEs and non-MSMEs with existing working capital limits and scheduled passenger airlines to boost fresh lending worth INR 2.5trn for such firms, in turn limiting slippages and lowering credit costs. The ECLGS was a key backstop during the pandemic, successfully providing guarantees worth INR 3.6trn, benefiting ~11mn borrowers (share of MSME – 95%), when it was concluded in March 2023.
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