India markets: Ongoing disinflation leaves ample room to ease rates
Full-year inflation to average 3.8%.
Group Research - Econs, Radhika Rao14 May 2025
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India’s price pressures continue to ebb. April inflation rose 3.2% yoy from 3.3% in March, in line with expectations and marking the slowest pace of rise in six years. Food prices fell for a sixth successive month on sequential basis although the scale of decline slowed in midst of a shift in weather conditions. Food inflation eased to 2.1% yoy vs 1Q25’s average of 4.1%. Vegetables, pulses, eggs, and cereals declined on sequential terms, while edible oils, fruits and milk were nearly flat. A pullback in global energy prices and a firm currency kept imported pressures in check, besides benign service sector inflation excluding the personal care and effects segment (12.9% yoy vs 1Q25 average 12.6%) which was propped up by elevated gold prices. The latter kept the core print (ex-food and fuel) above 4% yoy, while the core-core measure (ex-food fuel and precious metals) was close to the level of the headline print. Incoming high frequency data suggests that May’s inflation could slip below 3% on lower food and services. This is likely to see inflation average sub-3% in 1QFY26 (2Q25), before drifting past 3.5% in 2HFY26. We expect full-year inflation to average 3.8%, below the midpoint of the target range. Ongoing disinflation leaves ample room to ease rates, with a 25bp cut in June looking certain at this juncture. 

Onshore bond markets witnessed a fair bit of volatility in the past week in midst of geopolitical tensions. Bonds rallied in the early part of the conflict, expecting tensions to stabilise. However, escalation thereafter drove benchmark yields higher, with the 10Y rising past 6.4%. A ceasefire over the weekend is likely to help yields stabilise within 6.3-6.4% range until fresh demand from state names surface. Over the next few weeks, the scale of the RBI’s dividend transfer will be in view, with a potential scale of INR 2.5-3.0trn already priced in. It remains unclear if any further tranches of open market operations will be announced for June in midst of banking system liquidity that is already in surplus and is likely to widen further on the dividend transfer by the central bank. Dovish monetary policy, surplus liquidity and easing geopolitical tensions is expected to lead the benchmark yield back towards 6.3%. 


Radhika Rao

Senior Economist – Eurozone, India, Indonesia
[email protected]



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