HKD and CNH rates: Diverging liquidity dynamics (Samuel Tse)
HKD rates rebound, CNH below onshore rates.
Group Research - Econs, Samuel Tse17 Apr 2026
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HKD rates have rebounded at the start of the second week of April, with 1M HIBOR rising back to 2.35%. We expect HKD front-end rates to edge higher in the near term. Improving sentiment around a potential de-escalation of the US–Iran conflict is supporting demand for HKD assets, with daily Southbound Stock Connect net inflows rising 20% MoM in the first two weeks of April. Liquidity conditions are tightening amid ongoing buyout IPO activity, although the impact on HIBOR should be capped. Under the current HKEX FINI framework, banks and brokers are not required to lock up excess liquidity for oversubscription applications. Externally, expectations of a Federal Reserve pause should continue to support USD-pegged HKD front-end rates.

By contrast, offshore CNH rates are likely to remain anchored and stay below the onshore rates. The strengthening CNH exchange rate allows the PBoC to pause bill issuance. The authority is also maintaining ample offshore CNH liquidity to support RMB internationalisation. This is particularly evident as CIPS (Cross-Border Interbank Payment System) daily RMB settlement reached RMB0.92tn in March, with single-day usage exceeding RMB1tn following the US–Iran conflict. On the policy front, authorities have recently introduced measures to encourage offshore lending and keep up with the liquidity. The overseas loan leverage ratio for locally incorporated wholly foreign-funded banks and domestic branches of foreign banks has been raised from 0.5x to 1.5x, effective this Wednesday. The ratio for the Export-Import Bank of China has also been increased from 3.0x to 3.5x.



Samuel Tse 謝家曦

Senior Economist- China & Hong Kong 資深經濟學家 - 中國及香港
[email protected]



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