Running up against two clocks
Trump's third ultimatum delay to Iran raises hope for end game before War Powers deadline. .
Group Research - Econs, Philip Wee6 Apr 2026
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The USD Index (DXY) has been confined mostly to a 99.0-100.5 range since March 11, serving as a dual-axis barometer for the White House’s intentions regarding the Iran War and subsequent monetary policy implications.

On one side, the DXY reflects the uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s Operation Epic Fury. The market is caught between the President’s victory-lap rhetoric (suggesting strategic objectives are nearing completion) and the lack of a clear and credible diplomatic off-ramp. This keeps a war premium floor under the DXY while capping gains on hopes of a near-term de-escalation.

On the other side, the DXY captures a Fed in transition. While the +178k March NFP print exceeded expectations and cast doubt on the sole projected rate cut from the March Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), it has not been enough to trigger a DXY breakout. The Fed’s persistent wait-and-see narrative has successfully held the market back from pricing in actual rate hikes. Reflecting this, the US Treasury 10Y yield peaked at 4.48% on March 27 and eased to 4.34% last Friday, with 4.30% remaining as a pivotal support level.

Meanwhile, President Trump has extended the ultimatum to Iran a third time from April 6 to April 7 (8pm Eastern Time), referring to it as “Power Plant Day and Bridge Day” if Iran continues to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed. The extension follows a weekend of high tension that included the rescue of a downed American crew member from a downed fighter jet and reports of indirect negotiations involving Egypt, Turkey, and Pakistan with Tehran.

President Trump’s extensions appear to be a stalling tactic to force an Iranian capitulation before his 60-day window for unauthorized military action under the War Powers Resolution of 1973 approaches its April 28 deadline. Trump is likely aware of a constitutional showdown he might not win over a war that has eroded his domestic and international standing. First, more "America First" Republicans and independents are turning against the war, fearing it has evolved from a surgical strike into another "forever war." Second, approval of Trump’s economic handling has hit a career low, with voters seeing their purchasing power decimated by a "war-tax" at the pump and in grocery stores. Third, Trump has alienated traditional allies in Europe and the Gulf who are prioritizing economic survival over participating in an illegal war involving potential war crimes under international law.

USD/JPY appears overextended as it tests Japan’s policymakers’ 160 pain threshold. The market is caught between the positive US-Japan interest rate differential supporting USD/JPY and increased expectations (67% chance) for a Bank of Japan rate hike at its April 28 meeting. In Tokyo, the policy consensus is getting clearer that protracted JPY weakness, once viewed as a boon for exporters and the Nikkei 225, is now a primary cost-push inflation threat eroding household purchasing power. The BOJ’s Tankan Survey also reinforced this hawkish shift, highlighting inflation expectations while indicating sufficient corporate sentiment to absorb a 25-bps hike without tipping the economy into recession.

Quote of the Day
“You cannot create experience. You must undergo it.”
     Albert Camus

April 6 in history
US’s entry into World War I in 1917 created “Liberty Bonds,” which changed the structure of the US National Debt and retail investing.







Philip Wee

Senior FX Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]

 

 
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