USD Rates: Conflicted data, conflicted trading
High oil prices and a lacklustre labour market is stoking stagflation worries.
Group Research - Econs, Eugene Leow9 Mar 2026
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The miss in NFP adds the specter of stagflation into the mix. NFP printed -92k, against consensus of 55k. Judging from the volatility of NFP over the past few quarters, there is a high degree of randomness. This round’s weakness was blamed in part to strikes and bad weather and came about after other high frequency labour market stayed firm (ADP employment and jobless claims). For what it’s worth, the last three months of NFP averaged 5.7k, an improvement from -7.6 in the preceding three months. There is also no turnaround in the shedding of manufacturing jobs thus far. Between the weak NFP print and a mild uptick in the unemployment rate, some caution on the labour market is warranted. 



USD rates are conflicted and trading nuanced. US yields across the curve have pushed higher amidst the rapid climb in energy prices. Even if the Iranian conflict ends, it does not guarantee a rapid normalization of energy flows (both production and transport) out of the region. Brent Crude has pushed above USD 90/bbl with WTI just close behind. Inflation expectations are being nudged higher with 2Y breakevens up by close to 90bps since the start of the year. That said, trading in the front of the curve is nuanced and is reflected by the whipsaw on Friday. Yields were pushing higher before the unexpectedly weak NFP hit. However, inflation worries still took 2Y yields higher before they eventually settled below 3.60%. We think real frontend rates would probably be compressed as policy making becomes conflicted. 

The back of the curve is similarly conflicted. The back end of the curve has to consider haven demand (bringing yields lower), economic conditions (some weakness due to NFP), higher inflation (due to energy prices) and spillovers from other G10 yields (higher due to energy prices). Yields will probably be stuck in range until a more dominant narrative takes shape. Interestingly, the curve steepened modestly even as the spectre of stagflation looms. This can probably be attributed to significant haven demand already pre-positioned over the past few weeks as the 2Y/10Y segment flattened from a peak of 73bps in early Feb to 58bps currently. 

Eugene Leow

Senior Rates Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]



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