CNY Rates: Looking beyond Middle East conflict
Keeping to an easing path.
Group Research - Econs, Samuel Tse3 Mar 2026
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CGB yields are falling across the curve following the weekend escalation in the US–Iran conflict. The offshore CNH has weakened from 6.82 last Thursday to 6.89 yesterday against the USD. A-shares are holding broadly steady, while the Hang Seng Index is sliding 2.14%. The cross-asset reaction reflects a blend of geopolitics and policy calibration: the PBOC is watchful over against appreciation pressure, even as Middle East risk premium is seeping into regional markets.

The direct macro hit to China remains manageable, despite Iran accounting for 10.9% of China’s total oil imports (2024 data). First, Beijing has been diversifying supply channels. Imports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, and Indonesia rose in 2025. Second, crude inventories are ample. Oil coverage has reached 118 days, comfortably above the IEA’s 90-day benchmark. Structurally, oil dependency is steady at 18.2% of total energy consumption, while renewables have overtaken crude at 19.8%. The energy mix is becoming more resilient.

As a result, the pass-through to inflation should stay contained. While PPI has shown a strong 0.89x correlation with oil prices over the past decade, the broader pricing impulse is muted. CPI spillover is limited, with transport & communication accounting for 14.3% of the 2025 CPI basket. The retail fuel pricing band mechanism is keeping pump prices broadly anchored. Inflation momentum remains soft: CPI rose just 0.2% YoY in January, while PPI contracted 1.4%. This backdrop keeps the PBOC firmly on its easing path.

From a broader monetary lens, the central bank is staying pro-growth. The cut in Risk Reserve Ratio for Forward FX sales from 20% to 0% signals a clear bias to temper appreciation pressure. With CNH still relatively firm and inflation subdued, liquidity conditions are likely to remain accommodative. Meanwhile, anti-involution policies are curbing capex in manufacturing and related credit demand, reinforcing downward pressure on rates.

Taken together, CGB yields are likely to stay anchored, with downside risks biased toward the long end as easing expectations continue to build.



Samuel Tse 謝家曦

Senior Economist- China & Hong Kong 資深經濟學家 - 中國及香港
[email protected]




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