USD Rates: Finetuning expectations
USD rates caught between sentiment and fundamentals.
Group Research - Econs, Eugene Leow16 Feb 2026
Article image
Photo credit: Unsplash/Adobe Stock Photo
Read More

Market participants are finetuning their view on USD rates amidst increased market volatility and recent data. Increased market volatility largely stems from an increasing worry that the tech-fuelled rise in US equities may have turned shaky. Notably, worries about profitability of hyper scalers and the disruptive impact of AI unto different segments of the economy are weighing on sentiment. The outperformance of the Dow over the Nasdaq is a clear indication of this shift. Moreover, given the run up in gold over the past few quarters, investors are wary that gold may be correlated with risk and not perform well during times of risk aversion. This proved to be the case in the bout of volatility last week where US Treasuries stood out to be the asset class of choice when things go awry. Notably, 10Y yields are now very close to our near-term forecast of 4%.

From a macro standpoint, the economy seems to be in “Goldilocks” mode. NFP had a nice surge amidst a decline in unemployment rate. Meanwhile, headline CPI missed (0.2% MoM sa, consensus: 0.3%) setting the stage for a rally across the curve on Friday. NFP had a nice surge amidst a decline in unemployment rate. Meanwhile, headline CPI missed (0.2% MoM sa, consensus: 0.3%) setting the stage for a rally across the curve on Friday. 

There are a couple of takeaways. First, labour market data determines the urgency of cuts. This set of data would mean that the Fed would stay on hold for some time. Second, benign inflation would provide the room for the Fed to ease, ensuring that real rates do not become too restrictive. Against this backdrop, our Fed call has shifted. 

We now see the Fed cutting 25bps each in 3Q and 4Q, for a terminal rate of 3.25% (previous: 25bps cut in 1Q for a terminal rate of 3.50%). SGD and HKD rates have also been tweaked accordingly. Note that this Fed path is contingent on a moderate labour market and continued softness for inflation and may also imply some pressure from Trump to ease.  Our Asia rates forecasts have also been refreshed.  



Eugene Leow

Senior Rates Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]



Subscribe here to receive our economics & macro strategy materials.
To unsubscribe, please click here.

Topic

GENERAL DISCLOSURE/ DISCLAIMER (For Macroeconomics, Currencies, Interest Rates)

GENERAL DISCLOSURE/ DISCLAIMER (For Macroeconomics, Currencies, Interest Rates & Digital Assets)

The information herein is published by DBS Bank Ltd and/or DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited (each and/or collectively, the “Company”). It is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Company does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness for any particular purpose. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This research is prepared for general circulation.  Any recommendation contained herein does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. The information herein is published for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice. The Company, or any of its related companies or any individuals connected with the group accepts no liability for any direct, special, indirect, consequential, incidental damages or any other loss or damages of any kind arising from any use of the information herein (including any error, omission or misstatement herein, negligent or otherwise) or further communication thereof, even if the Company or any other person has been advised of the possibility thereof. The information herein is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or to provide any investment advice or services. The Company and its associates, their directors, officers and/or employees may have positions or other interests in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking or financial services for these companies.  The information herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country, or other jurisdiction (including but not limited to citizens or residents of the United States of America) where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.  The information is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction (including but not limited to the United States of America) where such an offer or solicitation would be contrary to law or regulation.

[#for Distribution in Singapore] This report is distributed in Singapore by DBS Bank Ltd (Company Regn. No. 196800306E) which is Exempt Financial Advisers as defined in the Financial Advisers Act and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. DBS Bank Ltd may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities, affiliates or other foreign research houses pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, DBS Bank Ltd accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact DBS Bank Ltd at 65-6878-8888 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

DBS Bank Ltd., 12 Marina Boulevard, Marina Bay Financial Centre Tower 3, Singapore 018982. Tel: 65-6878-8888. Company Registration No. 196800306E.

DBS Bank Ltd., Hong Kong Branch, a company incorporated in Singapore with limited liability. 18th Floor, The Center, 99 Queen’s Road Central, Central, Hong Kong SAR.

DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited, a company incorporated in Hong Kong with limited liability.  11th Floor, The Center, 99 Queen’s Road Central, Central, Hong Kong SAR.

Virtual currencies are highly speculative digital "virtual commodities", and are not currencies. It is not a financial product approved by the Taiwan Financial Supervisory Commission, and the safeguards of the existing investor protection regime does not apply.  The prices of virtual currencies may fluctuate greatly, and the investment risk is high. Before engaging in such transactions, the investor should carefully assess the risks, and seek its own independent advice.