G10 Rates: Greenland adds to long-end pressures
Long-end curves biased higher.
Group Research - Econs, Eugene Leow20 Jan 2026
Article image
Photo credit: Unsplash/Adobe Stock Photo
Read More

Trump’s attempts to gain control of Greenland throws up a range of scenarios that offers meaningful upside risks to long-end developed market rates. These scenarios range from a compromise (including a form of investment treaty between the US and Europe), a standoff (tariff war between Europe and the US), annexation (US includes the Greenland within its sphere of influence) and a Trump walk back (deescalation where things return to the status quo where Greenland remains an autonomous territory of Denmark). Depending on the level of escalation, there would almost certainly be more military spending (from either the US or the Eurozone) and more investments. 

From a rates perspective, higher military spending and investments will almost certainly lead to higher long-term rates and steeper curves. To put things into perspective, Germany’s military spending makes up about 1.2% of GDP in 2019. This figure has since risen to 1.9% in 2024. Between the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and the additional impetus from the Greenland situation, there is greater pressure for Europe to grow military spending to be in line with NATO’s new capability targets (5% of GDP by 2035). Even in the best case scenario where deescalation takes place, Europe is likely to be a lot more wary and there will still be a stronger push for military spending than otherwise would have been. We think long-end DM rates are generally biased higher and the degree of pressure depends on which scenario plays out. 

Some of this is showing up in the German Bund curve overnight (the US market was closed). Risk off nudged down front end yields modestly. However, the backend was more wary of additional military / investment spending, triggering twist steepening in the process. We also note that the under current conditions, flight to safety into government bonds (USTs or EGBs) may not work out as well. Financial decoupling (European economies reducing their holdings of US assets) is another risk to watch for and adds to worries that USTs are no longer viewed to be as safe an asset as it once was. Instead, demand for safety is directed into precious metals (gold, silver).  

Eugene Leow

Senior Rates Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]



Subscribe here to receive our economics & macro strategy materials.
To unsubscribe, please click here.
GENERAL DISCLOSURE/ DISCLAIMER (For Macroeconomics, Currencies, Interest Rates)

GENERAL DISCLOSURE/ DISCLAIMER (For Macroeconomics, Currencies, Interest Rates & Digital Assets)

The information herein is published by DBS Bank Ltd and/or DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited (each and/or collectively, the “Company”). It is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Company does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness for any particular purpose. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This research is prepared for general circulation.  Any recommendation contained herein does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. The information herein is published for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice. The Company, or any of its related companies or any individuals connected with the group accepts no liability for any direct, special, indirect, consequential, incidental damages or any other loss or damages of any kind arising from any use of the information herein (including any error, omission or misstatement herein, negligent or otherwise) or further communication thereof, even if the Company or any other person has been advised of the possibility thereof. The information herein is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or to provide any investment advice or services. The Company and its associates, their directors, officers and/or employees may have positions or other interests in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking or financial services for these companies.  The information herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country, or other jurisdiction (including but not limited to citizens or residents of the United States of America) where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.  The information is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction (including but not limited to the United States of America) where such an offer or solicitation would be contrary to law or regulation.

[#for Distribution in Singapore] This report is distributed in Singapore by DBS Bank Ltd (Company Regn. No. 196800306E) which is Exempt Financial Advisers as defined in the Financial Advisers Act and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. DBS Bank Ltd may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities, affiliates or other foreign research houses pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, DBS Bank Ltd accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact DBS Bank Ltd at 65-6878-8888 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

DBS Bank Ltd., 12 Marina Boulevard, Marina Bay Financial Centre Tower 3, Singapore 018982. Tel: 65-6878-8888. Company Registration No. 196800306E.

DBS Bank Ltd., Hong Kong Branch, a company incorporated in Singapore with limited liability. 18th Floor, The Center, 99 Queen’s Road Central, Central, Hong Kong SAR.

DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited, a company incorporated in Hong Kong with limited liability.  11th Floor, The Center, 99 Queen’s Road Central, Central, Hong Kong SAR.

Virtual currencies are highly speculative digital "virtual commodities", and are not currencies. It is not a financial product approved by the Taiwan Financial Supervisory Commission, and the safeguards of the existing investor protection regime does not apply.  The prices of virtual currencies may fluctuate greatly, and the investment risk is high. Before engaging in such transactions, the investor should carefully assess the risks, and seek its own independent advice.