Geely Automobile Holdings
The latest investment analysis on Geely Automobile Holdings
Group Research - Equities21 Aug 2025
Article image
Photo credit: iStock
Read More
Company Overview
Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd is an investment holding company principally engaged in the production and sales of automobiles. The Company mainly develops, manufactures and sells automobiles, including cars, sport utility vehicles (SUVs), new energy and electrified vehicles. The Company's car types include home, travel and sports. The Company's new energy and electrified vehicles include electric vehicles, battery electric vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles, mild hybrid electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. In addition, the Company produces and sells automobile parts, batteries and other automobile components. The Company also sells licenses for its intellectual property.


Investment Overview
Aggressive tech vehicle portfolio development. Geely, a major Chinese automaker, is stacking up on its AI building blocks in advanced intelligent driving capabilities - G-Pilot driving systems, powertrain platform, cockpit solutions, tapping the AI architecture. After achieving solid shipment volume growth of ~50% in 7M25, Geely continues to enhance its advanced driving technology with an upgraded Flyme Auto smart cockpit in 2H.

Solid 2H vehicle shipment outlook. Geely plans to release more NEV models in 2H (Geely Galaxy M9 and Xingyao 6, Zeekr 9X and Lynk & Co 10 EMP), which should drive 2H sales; we estimate 2H volume shipment to increase by 30% y/y to ~1.6mn units. Geely will also be launching some of the newer models to overseas markets (especially electric versions), which should lead to higher volume shipments (+30% h/h) after overseas volume sales fell 7% y/y in 1H.

Upward earnings revision. We refined FY25/26F volume, margin and cost assumptions and raised earnings by 19%/15%, as the new models enhance revenue mix. The synergies from the merger of Zeekr and Lynk & Co continues to be realised, benefitting its cost structure. Hence, we estimate FY24-26 earnings CAGR of ~40%.

Maintain BUY with higher TP of HKD27.00 (prev: HKD23). We pegged our new HKD27.00 TP to unchanged target PE of 17x (~0.2SD below historical average). The stock is trading at attractive valuation of ~12x relative to its strong earnings outlook. Maintain BUY.


Key risks:
A weaker-than-expected consumer market and severe price competition could weigh on its vehicle sales and margins trends.