- MAS may slightly steepen SGD NEER slope, keeping width and centre unchanged.
- Malaysia’s Q3 GDP growth to reach 5.0% yoy.
- China’s exports are expected to rise 25.7% yoy in September.
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CENTRAL BANK MEETINGS
Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS)
We expect another slight increase in the SGD NEER policy band slope at the MAS’ October review, with no change to the band’s width or centre. Import cost pressures and resilient growth favour a calibrated tightening, rather than a more forceful adjustment, in line with the global monetary policy stance.
Also due to be released alongside the MAS’ policy decision are the 3Q26 advance GDP estimates, which we expect to show another quarter of strong growth at 5.4% yoy (1.4% qoq sa), compared with 5.9% yoy (1.4% qoq sa) in 2Q26. Robust economic performance continued to be driven by artificial intelligence (AI)-led trade activity, supporting the manufacturing and wholesale trade sectors, while strength in the financial sector underpinned the resilience of the modern services cluster. This came despite a moderation of the transport & storage sector, and weakness in consumer-facing food services and retail sectors.
FORTHCOMING DATA RELEASES
Malaysia
We expect Malaysia’s advance GDP estimate for 3Q26 to register above-trend growth of 5.0% yoy, albeit moderating from 6.0% yoy in 2Q26. The overall expansion continued to be supported by ongoing strength in the export-oriented manufacturing sector, underpinned by strong AI-related demand for electronics, and sustained domestic demand, backed by healthy investment and private consumption trends. However, contraction in mining and weak agricultural activity dragged overall growth.
Singapore
We expect firm Singapore non-oil domestic exports (NODX) growth of 28.0% yoy in September 2026, although moderating from August’s exceptional surge of 46.2%. Although favourable base effects largely faded in September, electronics shipments likely remained the primary growth driver, underpinned by robust AI-related demand amid sustained global investment in AI infrastructure, while non-electronics exports were uneven.
China
Exports growth is expected to remain robust at 25.7% yoy in September, supported by continued strength in electronics demand. Both the official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs rose above the 50 expansion threshold during the month, pointing to improving manufacturing activity. External trade indicators also strengthened, with average daily deadweight tonnage handled at China's 20 major ports accelerating from -0.7% yoy in August to 7.2% in September. Freight activity improved as well, as growth in international cargo flights picked up from -1.4% yoy to 3.6% over the same period.
On the price front, factory-gate and raw material prices rebounded amid the renewed escalation in geopolitical tensions. Main raw material purchasing price and producer price subPMI increased from 56.6 and 50.4 to 60.8 and 54.0 during the period. However, downstream consumer price pressures are likely to remain relatively subdued under the pricing-band mechanism. As a result, CPI inflation is expected to edge up from 0.8% yoy in August to 1.0% in September. Nevertheless, soft domestic demand is expected to continue constraining the pace of consumer price increases.
India
September inflation is likely to gather momentum to 5.7% y/y, partly driven by base effects, from 4.8% the month before. Food segments continue to register gains, with pressures broadening to include perishables, edible oils, rice, pulses, sugar, etc., according to high-frequency data. Under non-food, retail pump prices have not been adjusted further, though other fuel products, such as non-subsidised LPG, diesel and ATF (still up by double digits y/y, though slower than in August), are up on the year. Core inflation is also likely to tick up, aligning with the central bank's view that price risks are no longer benign. Pressures have built up due to the overhang of an uneven and sub-par monsoon, drought conditions in parts of the country, and elevated oil prices. In the face of higher headline prints, we expect the RBI to keep the door open for another rate hike in December 2026.
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