- ASEAN-6 exports are growing above 30% year on year as 4Q26 begins.
- Electronics lead, but pharmaceuticals and energy are also enjoying strong demand.
- Manufacturers expect export demand to remain firm through the fourth quarter.
- Indonesia trails peers, though its improving manufacturing PMI offers encouragement.
- A moderate slowdown could limit over-investment, energy costs and import bills.
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COMMENTARY: Asean’s export momentum
Stepping into 4Q26, many Asian economies are poised to end the year with record exports. While the headlines are typically about the roaring exports of high-end electronics exports out of South Korea and Taiwan, SE Asia is also having a banner year. For the Asean-6 economies, we estimate that exports are growing at 30%+yoy rate. PMI responses indicate that manufacturers expect demand to remain strong through 4Q.
We have stressed in earlier publications that the AI-related electronics demand is an important but not the only part of the demand spurt. The region’s pharmaceutical exporters, for instance, are enjoying a robust demand cycle. Exporters of crude and refined energy in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore are also in the middle of a banner year. Sustained consumer spending, especially in the US, continues despite the rise in prices.
This is why the region’s exports chart looks rather uniform. Despite a rather heterogeneous exports base, exports are growing robustly across the board, whether it is the Philippines or Malaysia.
The only relatively underwhelming case among the Asean-6 is Indonesia, with exports growing by mid-single digit this year, and exports to the US up by mid-teens. Encouragingly for the coming months though, Indonesia’s manufacturing PMI has picked up lately.
With strong growth performance comes concerns about downturn risks. With stock markets in many economies at record highs, interest rates rising in major markets, and inflation risks lingering, demand could falter soon. We think a degree of slowdown, while sobering, could be good for Asia. It would reduce the risk of over-investment as demand moderation would reduce the need for constant expansion of capacity. A downturn would also reduce energy prices and help the import bill. Exports correction won’t be good news, but there may be some silver lining.
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