- We forecast PBOC to leave the 1-year LPR unchanged at 3.00%
- Bank Indonesia to cut the policy rate by 25bps to 4.50%
- The Bank of Korea to cut its base rate from 2.50% to 2.25%
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Central bank meetings
The People's Bank of China (Oct 22): The PBOC is expected to keep the 1-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged at 3.00% as policymakers assess the impact of recent stimulus measures and await progress in trade negotiations with the US. China’s economic growth is projected to slow from 5.2% in 2Q to 4.8% in 3Q under our Nowcasting model, reflecting a broad-based slowdown in economic activity during the period. Despite a recent uptick in external demand, industrial production growth is expected to ease from 5.2% yoy in August to 5.0% yoy in September, weighed down by subdued domestic demand and the ongoing "anti-involution" campaign. Retail sales are projected to moderate from 3.4% yoy in August to 2.9% yoy in September, as household sentiment remains weak amid poor job prospects, slowing income growth, and elevated precautionary savings. Declining property prices continue to offset any wealth effect from equities. On the investment front, corporates are adopting a more cautious stance on capital expenditure. We project FAI growth to further decelerate from 0.5% yoy ytd in August to 0.2% yoy ytd in September, with real estate investment remaining the major drag. Looking ahead, The PBoC is likely to maintain an accommodative stance to reduce borrowing costs and support reinvestment. We anticipate another 10bps reduction in 1-year Loan Prime Rate this year. The central bank is also likely to continue easing through quantitative measures.
Bank Indonesia (October 22): Bank Indonesia will hold its monthly rate review this week. The central bank has frontloaded policy easing measures, in sync with the government’s moves to support growth, by undertaking three consecutive cuts between July and September. We expect this month’s decision to be a close one, with a slightly more than even chance for a fourth successive 25bp cut, taking the benchmark rate to 4.5%. Policy commentary is likely to emphasise on the need for a growth-supportive stance, to help ease financing costs as well as act as a buffer against global developments. Rupiah has been largely rangebound, with any bounce in USDIDR running into stiff intervention risks. The latter combined with debt repayments have led to a moderation in the foreign reserves stock. US Fed is also widely expected to cut two times this quarter. Policy guidance will be dovish, helping to cap market based borrowing costs, including SBN yields.
Bank of Korea (October 23): The Bank of Korea is expected to lower its base rate from 2.50% to 2.25% at this meeting. The growing impact of US tariffs has strengthened the case for a rate cut, with September exports declining 6.2% yoy on a working-day adjusted basis. Inflation remains subdued, offering further room for easing — September CPI rose 2.1% yoy, up from 1.7% in August due to temporary distortions from telecom fee cuts. While concerns over a property market rebound had previously delayed action, recent data show a continued sharp decline in property transactions and a significant slowdown in household lending, despite modest price increases. Capital outflows and KRW weakness remain concerns, but the Fed’s openness to further rate cuts should give the BOK room to ease. If the BOK holds rates at this meeting, a rate cut in November will likely remain on the table.
Forthcoming data releases
Taiwan: September export orders and industrial production data are due this week. Export orders are expected to slow to 15.5% yoy, while industrial production is projected to decelerate to 13.5% yoy. AI-related demand and the postponement of semiconductor tariffs have continued to support external demand and manufacturing activity. However, there are emerging signs of a peak in trade and industrial indicators, which contrasts with the ongoing rally in the stock market and strong investor sentiment. Outside the high-tech sector, exports and manufacturing are already showing clear signs of weakness, largely due to the impact of US reciprocal tariffs on traditional industries.
Japan: September inflation data are due this week, with headline CPI expected to remain steady at 2.7% yoy, broadly in line with the previous month. Soft oil prices and ongoing government subsidy programs—including support for gasoline, electricity, and gas—are likely to keep energy inflation contained. Meanwhile, wage growth stood at 2.1% yoy as of August, still lagging behind inflation. With real wage growth remaining negative, the Bank of Japan is expected to remain cautious about further rate hikes at its October 30 meeting. Heightened political uncertainty following the collapse of the LDP coalition and the potential formation of an opposition-led coalition may also discourage the BOJ from tightening policy in the near term.
Malaysia: We expect Malaysia’s headline inflation to remain contained at 1.4% yoy in September 2025, despite marking its third consecutive month of gradual uptick. The expanded sales and services tax, effective from July, likely had a continued modest upside impact on services inflation, which has been rising since May. Overall price pressures were likely held back by persistent drags from energy-related items. The government announced targeted RON-95 subsidy reforms starting late-September, which will likely have a contained upside impact in the coming months given its calibrated tiered approach and manageable global oil prices.
Singapore: We expect continued contained inflation and a volatile rebound in industrial production (IP) in September 2025. Core inflation likely eased further for a second consecutive month, reaching 0.1% yoy, its lowest rate since early 2021. This further moderation was likely due to idiosyncratic factors, as cited by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in its Macroeconomic Review, October 2025. These factors include: 1) the drop out of the large increase in health insurance prices in September 2024 from yoy calculations in the same month this year, and 2) enhanced discounts at supermarkets that, in our view, will weigh on food inflation. Considering weaker core inflation and low accommodation price increases, offset by a pick-up in private transport inflation due to faster increases in car prices, we expect stable headline inflation of 0.5% yoy.
We forecast a volatile reversal in IP to 3.0% yoy growth in September 2025, from the sharp contraction of 7.8% yoy in August. This was likely due to fading adverse base effects, alongside a turnaround in electronics output that aligned with the strong bounce in electronics domestic exports. Electronics activity was likely supported by ongoing artificial intelligence-related demand and US tariff exemptions for such products. Transport engineering remained a bright spot, but biomedical and general manufacturing likely faced continued challenges. Amid ongoing US tariff headwinds and uncertainties, we expect Singapore’s export-oriented manufacturing sector to face challenges and volatility in the coming months as we head into 2026.
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Completed Date: 18 Jan 2023 11:04:34 (SGT)
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[1] An associate is defined as (i) the spouse, or any minor child (natural or adopted) or minor step-child, of the analyst; (ii) the trustee of a trust of which the analyst, his spouse, minor child (natural or adopted) or minor step-child, is a beneficiary or discretionary object; or (iii) another person accustomed or obliged to act in accordance with the directions or instructions of the analyst.
[2] Financial interest is defined as interests that are commonly known financial interest, such as investment in the securities in respect of an issuer or a new listing applicant, or financial accommodation arrangement between the issuer or the new listing applicant and the firm or analysis. This term does not include commercial lending conducted at arm's length, or investments in any collective investment scheme other than an issuer or new listing applicant notwithstanding the fact that the scheme has investments in securities in respect of an issuer or a new listing applicant.
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