From Tailwinds to Trade-Offs: Southeast Asia Outlook 2026 - 2035
Shifting global conditions set the boundaries for Southeast Asia’s growth over the next decade, but domestic policy choices will dictate if each country captures growth upside.
Group Research - Econs16 Sep 2026
  • Southeast Asian economies have held up remarkably well despite recent turbulence…
  • …but structural differences across countries are widening the quality and concentration of growth.
  • Our base case forecast for 2026 to 2035 remains broadly intact at 4.8% in this updated edition...
  • …but with widened range of possible outcomes, amid shifting global conditions.
  • Institutional resilience, stronger energy systems, and the AI dividend are policy priorities.
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We forecast Southeast Asia's six largest economies (SEA-6: Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam) to grow by an average of 4.8% annually between 2026 and 2035. Growth will be supported by sustained foreign investment and capital formation, continued industrialisation, and infrastructure development, as well as productivity gains from technology adoption. Resilient domestic consumption and favourable demographics in several of the larger economies will provide further impetus.

On average, SEA-6 nations grew 5.1% in 2024 and 2025. This performance is remarkable given recent shifts in global economic, technological, and geopolitical conditions. However, the aggregate figure masks a sharp, structural divergence between nations. For example, Vietnam achieved a 7.5% growth rate, whereas Thailand delivered just 2.7% growth. Geopolitical, technological, and trade shifts will continue to influence outcomes. However, performance over the next decade will be notably influenced by near-term choices and domestic policy actions. We identify three specific policy priorities: building institutional resilience, fortifying energy systems, and capturing the AI dividend.

While baseline growth is expected to remain relatively stable across the region, each country possesses a materially different capacity to capture upside growth and minimise downside exposure. The report includes an expanded range of outcomes, demonstrating the upside and downside possibilities for each country as a “fan” of potential trajectories. In a downside scenario, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand are most exposed given their capital flow sensitivities, energy dependence, political uncertainty, and weaker structural momentum. Vietnam and Malaysia are more moderately exposed; both retain strong industrial relevance, but their open, export-linked economies remain vulnerable to demand and supply-chain shocks. Singapore is the most resilient, supported by safe-haven status, deep markets, fiscal buffers, and its trusted-hub credibility.

In more favourable conditions, the pattern shifts. Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam capture disproportionate upside, leveraging their roles in capital intermediation and global manufacturing supply chains. Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines see more limited benefit, as persistent structural constraints limit their ability to translate an improved external environment into stronger growth.


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Taimur Baig, Ph.D.

Chief Economist - Global
taimurbaig@dbs.com

Chua Han Teng, CFA

Economist - Asean
hantengchua@dbs.com

 


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