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Surprise strength in 2Q GDP
GDP growth registered an upside surprise in 2Q25, rising 5.1% yoy compared to consensus for a sub-5% print and 4.9% in 1Q. On seasonally adjusted basis, momentum accelerated in the second quarter, at odds with high frequency data. We gather three key takeaways from the release. Firstly, gross fixed capital formation was the fastest growing segment, up 7% yoy vs 2.1% in 1Q, singlehandedly accounting for ~40% of the headline growth rate. Secondly, frontloading of exports ahead of the tariffs implementation date resulted in exports rising 10.7% yoy, firmest pace in nearly two years. Lastly, overall consumption rose 4.4% yoy, led by a near-steady 5% rise in household demand, stronger 7.8% yoy from political parties and non-profit institutions, while government consumption declined for a second consecutive quarter.
Inflation bounces on base effects
July inflation accelerated to 2.4% yoy from 1.9% month before, marking the firmest print since December 2024 and in the middle of the BI’s 1.5-3.5% target. Much of the increase was on account of food components (red chillies, tomatoes, shallots etc.) and personal care component (primarily gold costs). Services also reflected seasonal momentum, due to back-to-school lift in demand, besides utilities and healthcare (see chart). Core readings flatlined at 2.3% yoy.
Fiscal dynamics and bond markets
Total revenues met 40% of the full-year budget in first half of 2025, while expenditure stood at 38% vs 28% in May, signaling a catch-up in disbursements. In terms of growth rates, total revenues are down -8.8% yoy in 1H25, improving from May run rate of -11%, but below same time last year. The bigger difference was on the expenditure side, with spending up only a marginal 0.6% yoy by Jun25, while by mid-2024, spending was up 11% yoy, pointing to slower spending across the board. Expenditure realisation amongst the social welfare programs has also been below target, with IDR 5trn disbursed by June, compared to full year allocation of IDR71trn, and school improvement program at IDR 587bn (3.5% of total) compared to IDR16.97trn budget, according to data from the MOF. The budget balance stood at 0.8% of GDP in 1H25, lagging last year’s trend.
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