The Week Ahead: Forecasts, data preview, central bank watch
The Week Ahead covers the key data releases and central bank events of the coming week, collating our macro forecasts.
Group Research - Econs26 Jun 2026
  • South Korea’s June exports to stay strong, supporting AI trades.
  • Indonesia’s and South Korea’s June CPI to edge higher, reinforcing rate hike expectations.
  • Vietnam’s 2Q GDP growth to hold steady at 7.8%.
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Forthcoming Data Release

South Korea

June trade and inflation data will be the key focus ahead. Exports are expected to maintain strong growth of 50-60% yoy for the fourth consecutive month, based on the preliminary data for the first 20 days of June, which showed a 60.4% yoy increase. The trade surplus is expected to widen to above USD30bn, compared with USD27bn in the previous month. AI-driven demand and rising memory chip prices continue to support South Korea’s semiconductor exports, helping to offset higher energy import costs.

On the inflation front, headline CPI is expected to accelerate further to 3.4% yoy from 3.1% in the previous month, remaining above the 3% threshold for the second consecutive month. Core CPI is also expected to rise to 2.7% from 2.5%. Imported inflationary pressures are building amid accumulated raw material cost increases and KRW weakness.

The Bank of Korea has signaled a bias toward rate hikes to contain inflation expectations and prevent broader second-round inflation effects. We expect a 25bps rate hike to 2.75% in July, followed by another 25bps hike to 3.00% in 4Q.

Vietnam

We expect Vietnam’s real GDP to expand by 7.8% yoy in 2Q26, remaining firm compared with 7.8% yoy in 1Q26. Growth momentum remained robust in 2Q26, underpinned by strong electronics manufacturing activity and shipments, which benefitted from the global technology upcycle driven by artificial intelligence tailwinds, supportive foreign direct investments, and resilient retail spending, despite challenges from the Middle East conflict and high base effects. We anticipate headline inflation to ease to 5.0% yoy in June 2026 from 5.6% yoy in May. This moderation primarily reflected receding transport inflation due to the unwinding of global and domestic energy price pressures, amid a de-escalation of Middle East tensions following a US-Iran interim peace deal, while other components such as food and housing remained sticky. The central bank’s refinancing rate remained steady in 2Q26, and policymakers have room to maintain this path to support high growth objectives, given easing energy prices and a stable currency, notwithstanding hawkish US Fed expectations.

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Ma Tieying 馬鐵英, CFA

Senior Economist - Japan, South Korea, & Taiwan 經濟學家 - 日本, 南韓及台灣
matieying@dbs.com

 


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