Indonesia: Tracking the growth pulse
Higher public spending, positive net exports, easing monetary conditions and welfare measures are expected to be supportive of Indonesia’s growth.
Group Research - Econs, Radhika Rao8 May 2025
  • 2025 got off to a softer start with growth slipping below 5%.
  • Apart from last year’s election driven distortions, public spending and investments were below trend
  • Our demand gauge and GDP Nowcast suggest seasonal momentum in 2Q25 will be restrained.
  • Faster realisation of government spending will be an important catalyst in 2H25 amid global volatili
  • Subject to rupiah movements, the window is open for a cut in May.
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2025 growth off to a softer start

Indonesia’s growth in 1Q25 slowed to 4.87% yoy, softest reading in three and a half years. The pace of sequential decline at -1.0% q/q in 1Q was sharper than the average contraction in the same quarter in the prior four years. Breakdown by components showed a moderation in the domestic engines i.e., government consumption (influenced by base effects owing to elections) and investment growth, while inventory restocking and net exports added to the headline.

Growth and policy outlook

In the immediate term, higher public spending, positive net exports, easing monetary conditions and welfare measures are expected to be supportive of Indonesia’s growth. Key offset factors are modest income growth, and overhang of global uncertainty. Putting these two-way forces together, we expect growth to average 4.8% yoy, revised from our earlier forecast at 5%. Assuming trade conditions see limited improvement in 2026, we trim next year’s growth to 4.9% from the current 5%. Indonesia’s growth has averaged 5% in the last decade, apart from the Covid-driven slowdown. The government’s target to lift growth towards 8% yoy in a step in the right direction, which will require concerted effort on multiple fronts as we outlined in Indonesia 2025: Political transition and three ‘C”s.

Bank Indonesia had recently lowered their growth projection to ‘slightly below the midpoint of 4.7-5.5% range’. The central bank priortised financial market stability over its other objectives in the first quarter, helped by a conducive inflation backdrop. We expect this cautious outlook to persist on tariff developments and consequent impact on the region, with the BI likely to be opportunistic with the timing of rate cuts. Subject to rupiah stabilising in the next two weeks, the window to lower rates this month remains open, helped by a significant real rate buffer and moderation in growth conditions.


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Radhika Rao

Senior Economist – Eurozone, India, Indonesia
[email protected]

 


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