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Central bank meetings

Bank of Thailand (25 Feb): The BOT will likely see reduced urgency for near-term monetary policy easing at its February 25 meeting, following firmer-than-expected 4Q25 GDP growth of 2.5% yoy, a high likelihood of policy continuity after the February 8 elections, and the 100bps cumulative policy rate cuts delivered in 2025. We therefore expect the BOT to maintain its policy rate at 1.25%, a dovish pause aimed at preserving diminishing policy space and assessing the durability of the growth improvement. While growth rebounded temporarily in 4Q25, underlying inflation remains muted, and several external and domestic growth challenges persist. As such, we anticipate the BOT to retain an accommodative bias through 2026. We look for one additional 25bps policy rate reduction to 1.00% in 1H26.

Bank of Korea (26 Feb): The BOK is expected to keep the base rate unchanged at 2.50% at this meeting. Macro conditions remain broadly Goldilocks. January PMI and trade data suggest that manufacturing activity continued to hold up in 1Q, supported in part by sustained global semiconductor demand and rising memory chip prices. CPI inflation has remained contained around the 2% level, while housing price growth has moderated from its peak following tighter macroprudential measures. A majority of MPC members are likely to favor keeping rates on hold over the next three months, without signaling an imminent shift toward rate hikes.

People Bank of China (24 Feb): The PBOC is expected to keep the 1-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged at 3.00%, as January economic data have yet to fully unfold. The central bank is maintaining a cautiously accommodative monetary policy stance amid heightening geopolitical tensions. This stance is being reflected in a lower USD/CNY fixing, which has breached the psychological 7.0 level. The PBoC has been relying more on structural tools to support targeted sectors rather than cutting the Loan Prime Rate or the 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate. We expect the PBoC to resume broader easing toward 2H.

Forthcoming data releases

Singapore: We expect both core and headline inflation in Singapore to rise to 1.5% yoy in January 2026, up from 1.2% yoy for both indicators in December 2025. Price pressures have been picking up since 4Q25, following a period of weakness. The January increase was partly driven by low base effects across various categories and was likely concentrated in services items.

For industrial production (IP), we anticipate a fifth consecutive month of expansion, with growth accelerating to a solid 20.0% yoy in January 2026, compared to 8.3% yoy in December 2025. Manufacturing growth was notably supported by strong electronics performance. The surge in electronics domestic exports to 56.1% yoy in January, driven by robust artificial intelligence (AI)-related demand for memory chips and server-related products, pointed to an acceleration in tech-heavy manufacturing output.

Hong Kong SAR: Consumer price growth is expected to ease from 1.4% in December to 1.3% yoy in January, amid weaker tourist data. Mainland tourist arrivals have declined by 2.1% yoy to 118k visitors per day in January, reflecting seasonality effects from the Lunar New Year holiday. Meanwhile, local resident departures have remained elevated at 329k per day, up 5.5% yoy from the same period last year. On the external front, Hong Kong’s export growth is expected to remain strong at 20.0% yoy in January. While partly driven by the low base effect from the Lunar New Year holiday, performance is also supported by deepening trade links between China and non-U.S. markets. U.S. re-exports to China via Hong Kong have also surged amid ongoing trade tensions.

India: A new rebased GDP series will be released on 27-Feb, with revisions expected to capture more recent economic shifts, data categorisation changes, increased digitisation and formalisation of the economy, besides other shifts. Calculations will be rebased from 2011-12 to 2022-23. For instance, supply side GVA gauge for the unincorporated sector is proposed to be estimated using data from the Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises and the Periodic Labour Force Survey. For estimation of private consumption expenditure (PFCE), a mixed approach will be adopted, amalgamating data from the Household Consumer Expenditure Survey, direct estimation based on production and other data sources as well as commodity flow approach. Besides, latest relevant standard i.e. COICOP 2018 has also been adopted in compilation of PFCE. We forecast real GDP at 7.3% yoy in 3QFY26 (4Q25) basis the current trend, with the revised number likely to be a better representative of underlying economic activity.


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