Europe Banks: German Fiscal Stimulus Lifts Market Sentiment
Higher demand, policy stability and strong capital buffers position European banks for modest earnings growth
Chief Investment Office27 May 2025
  • Germany’s fiscal stimulus to add c.0.6-0.9 %pts to Euro-area GDP growth in 2025-2026
  • Economic headwinds and global trade tensions continue to weigh on short-term growth
  • Still room for further ECB rate cuts, supportive for credit expansion
  • Policy shift to expansion will benefit European banks with significant German exposure
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German fiscal expansion - the EU nectar. Germany has unveiled a significant fiscal stimulus package, including a EUR500bn infrastructure fund, higher defence spending, and more relaxed borrowing rules – marking a major shift from its historically conservative fiscal approach. This stimulus is expected to contribute roughly 0.6-0.9 %pts to Euro-area GDP growth over 2025–2026, with broader effects across Europe. Major institutions like the International Monetary Fund have highlighted the positive spillover effects of Germany’s plan, suggesting it could support a revival in demand in the region. Nonetheless, short-term growth forecasts remain modest due to economic headwinds and global trade tensions, especially with new US tariffs on EU goods threatening German exports.

Still room for ECB rate cuts. The fiscal stimulus is not expected to drive inflation sharply higher, which leaves room for further European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate cuts. Bond yields have already risen, with German 10Y yields climbing roughly 0.4%, reflecting market expectations of stronger growth and government borrowing. This environment – modest inflation, stronger demand, and higher yields – should provide a more supportive backdrop for credit expansion and financial sector resilience. While concerns remain over long-term fiscal sustainability and credit worthiness, markets appear confident around Germany’s ability to stabilise debt ratios over time.

European banks, with strong German exposure to benefit. The policy shift could significantly benefit European banks – especially those with strong German exposure such as Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank, ING, as well as pan-European players like BNP Paribas. Higher public spending and improved business confidence are likely to drive greater credit demand, supporting loan growth across retail, SME, and infrastructure sectors. Rising bond yields, without a sharp rise in inflation, can help banks maintain attractive NIMs. ING, with its strong German mortgage book, stands to gain from renewed housing and consumer lending momentum. BNP Paribas, though based in France, operates a large pan-European platform and is expected to benefit from improved cross-border financial activity and capital market business. Overall, the combination of higher demand, policy stability, and strong capital buffers position European banks for modest earnings growth and more shareholder returns over the next 12 months.


Figure 1: ECB interest rate (MRO) vs EU’s GDP vs banking sector’s loan growth

Source: Bloomberg, DBS


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