DXY Index: Supported but still limited within range. The US-Iran conflict is still ongoing, and energy prices remain elevated. These are the baselines that will keep the broad USD tactically supported. However, USD bulls will be disappointed by the extent of the USD upside seen so far. The DXY Index has failed to breach the 100.50 range high once again. This means that it remains within the established sideways range from 3Q25. A sustained run above 101.00 will represent a clean breach of the range and set the stage for further technical-driven extension higher for the broad USD. Expect the broad USD to remain heavily headline-driven for now.

EUR-USD: ECB rate hikes are not positive for EUR. The market is now pricing in three rate hikes at the ECB after expecting an extended pause just prior to the conflict. The energy price shock is already a major drag on Eurozone growth. Rate hikes will further dampen economic activity. This double whammy for Eurozone growth will negate our previous EUR-positive stance. If energy prices hold at an elevated level on a sustained basis, do not rule out the EUR-USD revisiting levels below 1.1500.

AUD-USD: No change to our long-term bullish call. In the near-term, the AUD seemed to be weighed down disproportionately by the souring risk sentiment and uncertainty around the Middle East. The AUD-negative risk-off dynamic is dominant over the AUD-positive higher energy and commodity complex for now. The previously long-AUD positioning is now at risk of unwinding, reinforcing near-term pressure for the AUD. Nevertheless, the structural bullish call remains intact. The pair is holding on to the 0.6900 support for now. A deeper retracement should be arrested around the 100-DMA (0.6816). We prefer to buy on dips.

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