Economics

Daily analysis of the latest economic data points and policy developments in Asia and the major economies of the world.

Asia

Global / Growth, Rates

Weekly: Literal and metaphorical smog

September 20, 2019
Weekly: Literal and metaphorical smog

Human-generated smog, literal and metaphorical, is characterising the global economic and markets outlook.

US / Monetary, Rates, FX

Fed cuts with 3 dissents and funding challenges

September 19, 2019
Fed cuts with 3 dissents and funding challenges

FOMC’s 25bps policy rate cut with little concern about the outlook left the market dissatisfied.

India / Growth, Rates

India: Round four of growth support measures

September 16, 2019
India: Round four of growth support measures

Finance Minister Sitharaman unveiled the fourth set of support measures over the weekend.

Key Indicators

  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates
  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates

GDP growth, % YoY

2015201620172018f2019f
China6.96.76.96.66.2
Hong Kong2.42.03.83.32.9
India*7.58.07.16.67.2
Indonesia4.95.05.15.35.4
Malaysia5.04.25.95.05.0
Philippines**5.96.96.76.76.7
Singapore2.02.03.63.02.7
South Korea2.82.93.12.92.9
Taiwan0.81.42.92.82.4
Thailand2.93.23.94.04.0
Vietnam6.76.26.86.46.6
Eurozone1.91.82.52.22.2
Japan1.10.91.71.10.9
United States***2.61.52.32.62.5
* refers to year ending March **new CPI series *** eop for CPI inflation
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

CPI inflation, % YoY

2015201620172018f2019f
China1.42.01.62.12.2
Hong Kong3.02.41.72.02.5
India*6.04.94.53.64.6
Indonesia6.43.53.84.04.5
Malaysia2.12.13.92.63.0
Philippines**1.41.32.94.23.5
Singapore-0.5-0.50.61.01.8
South Korea0.71.01.91.81.8
Taiwan-0.31.40.61.31.0
Thailand-0.90.20.71.51.5
Vietnam0.62.73.53.63.8
Eurozone00.21.51.41.4
Japan0.8-0.10.50.81.0
United States***0.11.32.11.81.8
* refers to year ending March **new CPI series *** eop for CPI inflation
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

Exchange rates, end of period

1Q182Q183Q184Q181Q19
China*6.286.406.506.606.55
Hong Kong7.857.847.837.827.82
India65.1868.5069.0069.5070.00
Indonesia13,72814,10014,15014,20014,250
Malaysia3.864.004.104.204.17
Philippines52.253.053.554.054.5
Singapore**1.311.341.361.381.37
South Korea1,0641,1001,1251,1501,140
Taiwan
Thailand31.232.232.933.633.3
Vietnam***22,77522,83622,90322,97023,022
Eurozone1.23241.181.171.161.17
Japan106.28111113115114

* 1-yr lending rate; ** 3M SOR ; *** prime rate

Policy interest rates, end of period

1Q182Q183Q184Q181Q19
China*4.354.354.354.354.35
Hong Kongn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
India6.006.006.256.506.50
Indonesia4.254.504.754.754.75
Malaysia3.253.253.503.503.50
Philippines3.003.253.503.503.75
Singapore**1.401.651.902.152.15
South Korea1.501.501.752.002.00
Taiwan1.381.381.381.501.50
Thailand1.501.501.501.501.75
Vietnam***6.256.256.256.256.50
Eurozone0.000.000.000.000.00
Japan-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10

* 1-yr lending rate; ** 3M SOR ; *** prime rate

From the CIO Desk

The DBS Chief Investment Office explains what's happening in the markets and why in our weekly Investment Insights report.

 

 

Read here

Macro Insights

India’s Economies and Markets Around Elections

March 05, 2019

Global

Global / FX

GBP, AUD, JPY, and CNY under focus

September 20, 2019
Global

GBP, AUD, JPY, and CNY are under focus. China's loan prime rate to be watched.

Global / FX, Rates

Fed’s non-committal forward guidance; We still favour the U...

September 19, 2019
Global

The Fed delivers a hawkish cut. Central banks’ policies still favour the USD.

Insights and Analysis

China / Rates

High Noon for distressed Chinese credit...

September 17, 2019

Chinese credit spreads have widened amidst growth risks and worsening profitability. A coming wall of maturities is likely to pose rollover concerns and mark High Noon for distressed Chinese credit.

Key Summary Points
  • Chinese credit spreads have widened amidst normalizing global conditions and China-specific risks
  • China’s structural slowdown and a decline in profitability have induced financial stresses
  • A coming wall of maturities for distressed credit is likely to stir rollover concerns
  • 2020 could thus mark High Noon for Chinese defaults, surpassing previous highs
  • Without state support, monetary easing alone is unlikely to narrow Chinese credit spreads broadly

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